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Samuelsson, Patrick
Publications (10 of 42) Show all publications
Dieterich, C., Wang, S., Schimanke, S., Groger, M., Klein, B., Hordoir, R., . . . Meier, M. (2019). Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations. Atmosphere, 10(5), Article ID 272.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations
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2019 (English)In: Atmosphere, ISSN 2073-4433, E-ISSN 2073-4433, Vol. 10, no 5, article id 272Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5253 (URN)10.3390/atmos10050272 (DOI)000472677600046 ()
Available from: 2019-07-29 Created: 2019-07-29 Last updated: 2019-07-29Bibliographically approved
Helmert, J., Lange, M., Dong, J., De Rosnay, P., Gustafsson, D., Churulin, E., . . . Milelli, M. (2018). 1st Snow Data Assimilation Workshop in the framework of COST HarmoSnow ESSEM 1404. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 27(4), 325-333
Open this publication in new window or tab >>1st Snow Data Assimilation Workshop in the framework of COST HarmoSnow ESSEM 1404
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2018 (English)In: Meteorologische Zeitschrift, ISSN 0941-2948, E-ISSN 1610-1227, Vol. 27, no 4, p. 325-333Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5024 (URN)10.1127/metz/2018/0906 (DOI)000451577500005 ()
Available from: 2018-12-19 Created: 2018-12-19 Last updated: 2018-12-19Bibliographically approved
Zhang, W., Miller, P. A., Jansson, C., Samuelsson, P., Mao, J. & Smith, B. (2018). Self-Amplifying Feedbacks Accelerate Greening and Warming of the Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(14), 7102-7111
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Self-Amplifying Feedbacks Accelerate Greening and Warming of the Arctic
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2018 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 45, no 14, p. 7102-7111Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4963 (URN)10.1029/2018GL077830 (DOI)000442582100039 ()
Available from: 2018-09-10 Created: 2018-09-10 Last updated: 2018-09-10Bibliographically approved
Bengtsson, L., Andrae, U., Aspelien, T., Batrak, Y., Calvo, J., de Rooy, W., . . . Koltzow, M. O. (2017). The HARMONIE-AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP System. Monthly Weather Review, 145(5), 1919-1935
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The HARMONIE-AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP System
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2017 (English)In: Monthly Weather Review, ISSN 0027-0644, E-ISSN 1520-0493, Vol. 145, no 5, p. 1919-1935Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Meteorology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4149 (URN)10.1175/MWR-D-16-0417.1 (DOI)000404870300009 ()
Available from: 2017-08-07 Created: 2017-08-07 Last updated: 2017-08-07Bibliographically approved
Napoly, A., Boone, A., Samuelsson, P., Gollvik, S., Martin, E., Seferian, R., . . . Jarlan, L. (2017). The interactions between soil-biosphere-atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model multi-energy balance (MEB) option in SURFEXv8-Part 2: Introduction of a litter formulation and model evaluation for local-scale forest sites. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(4), 1621-1644
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The interactions between soil-biosphere-atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model multi-energy balance (MEB) option in SURFEXv8-Part 2: Introduction of a litter formulation and model evaluation for local-scale forest sites
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2017 (English)In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 10, no 4, p. 1621-1644Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4099 (URN)10.5194/gmd-10-1621-2017 (DOI)000399753800002 ()
Available from: 2017-05-23 Created: 2017-05-23 Last updated: 2017-05-23Bibliographically approved
Boone, A., Samuelsson, P., Gollvik, S., Napoly, A., Jarlan, L., Brun, E. & Decharme, B. (2017). The interactions between soil-biosphere-atmosphere land surface model with a multi-energy balance (ISBA-MEB) option in SURFEXv8-Part 1: Model description. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(2), 843-872
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The interactions between soil-biosphere-atmosphere land surface model with a multi-energy balance (ISBA-MEB) option in SURFEXv8-Part 1: Model description
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2017 (English)In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 10, no 2, p. 843-872Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4032 (URN)10.5194/gmd-10-843-2017 (DOI)000395087000001 ()
Available from: 2017-03-29 Created: 2017-03-29 Last updated: 2017-11-29Bibliographically approved
Wu, M., Schurgers, G., Rummukainen, M., Smith, B., Samuelsson, P., Jansson, C., . . . May, W. (2016). Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change. Earth System Dynamics, 7(3), 627-647
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change
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2016 (English)In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 7, no 3, p. 627-647Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3257 (URN)10.5194/esd-7-627-2016 (DOI)000382829300001 ()
Available from: 2016-10-04 Created: 2016-10-04 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Gaillard, M.-J., Kleinen, T., Samuelsson, P., Nielsen, A. B., Bergh, J., Kaplan, J., . . . Wramneby, A. (2015). Causes of Regional Change-Land Cover. In: : (pp. 453-477).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Causes of Regional Change-Land Cover
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2015 (English)Chapter in book (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response over the last two centuries is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects and to the biogeochemical versus biogeophysical effects. Palaeoecological studies show that the major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the Baltic Sea basin occurred between 6000 and 3000/2500 cal year BP. The only modelling study of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in north-western Europe suggests that deforestation between 6000 and 200 cal year BP may have caused significant change in winter and summer temperature. There is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback. Several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes.

Series
SECOND ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE BALTIC SEA BASIN
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2045 (URN)10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_25 (DOI)000367908100032 ()
Available from: 2016-05-02 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2016-05-02Bibliographically approved
Strandberg, G., Bärring, L., Hansson, U., Jansson, C., Jones, C., Kjellström, E., . . . Ullerstig, A. (2015). CORDEX scenarios for Europe from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4. SMHI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>CORDEX scenarios for Europe from the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4
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2015 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Denna rapport dokumenterar klimatmodellsimuleringar på 50 km horisontell upplösning över Europa med Rossby Centres regionala atmosfärsmodell (RCA4) gjorda inom projektet Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) för i) ERAInterim-drivna (ERAINT) simuleringar för att utvärdera förmågan hos RCA4 att simuleraden senaste tidens klimat, ii) historiska simuleringar av de senaste årtiondena med drivning från nio olika globala klimatmodeller (GCM:er) och iii) framtidsscenarierna RCP 4,5 och RCP 8,5 drivna med samma GCM:er. Dessa simuleringar representerar en delmängd av alla CORDEX-simuleringar producerade vid Rossby Centre och en allmän slutsats dragen vid Rossby Centre är att en sådan ensemble inte varit möjlig utan att först etablera den effektiva produktionskedja som beskrivs här. Första delen av rapporten dokumenterar RCA4 och dess förmåga i en simulering där ERAINT skalades ner. RCA4 återskapar till stor del den storskaliga cirkulationen från ERAINT, men några lokala avvikelser förekommer. I allmänhet simuleras säsongscykler för temperatur och nederbörd i överensstämmelse med observationer. Några avvikelser finns, som för mycket nederbörd i norra Europa och för lite i södra. På vintern är det även för mycket nederbörd i östra Europa. Temperaturen är i allmänhet underskattad i norra Europa och i medelhavsområdet på vintern, medan för höga temperaturer ges i sydöstra Europa på vintern och i medelhavsområdet på sommaren. RCA4 presterar i allmänhet bra i simuleringar av den senaste tidens klimat med randvillkor från GCM:er. En stor del av det simulerade klimatet i RCA4 kan tillskrivas den drivande GCM:en, men RCA4 skapar sitt eget klimat inuti modelldomänen och lägger till detaljer på grund av högre upplösning. Alla nio nedskalade GCM:er har gemensamma problem i representationen av den storskaliga cirkulationen på vintern. Denna egenskap förs vidare till RCA4. Avvikelserna i storskalig cirkulation medför avvikelser i temperatur och nederbörd i RCA4. Klimatförändringssignalen som den simuleras av RCA4-ensembler enligt RCP 4,5 och RCP 8,5 är mycket lika tidigare resultat. I både scenario RCP 4,5 och RCP 8,5 beräknas Europa bli varmare i framtiden. På vintern är uppvärmningen störst i norra Europa, och på sommaren i södra Europa. Den högsta dygnsmedeltemperaturen på sommaren ökar på ungefär samma sätt som sommartemperaturen, men något mer i södra Europa. Den lägsta dygnsmedeltemperaturen på vintern i norra Europa är den temperatur som förändras mest. Nederbörden beräknas öka under alla årstider i norra Europa och minska i södra Europa. Den största dygnsnederbörden (och per sjudagarsperiod) beräknas öka i nästan hela Europa och i alla årstider. Samtidigt beräknas den längsta perioden utan nederbörd att bli längre i södra Europa. I allmänhet förutses små förändringar i medelvindhastighet. Det finns emellertid områden med signifikanta förändringar i vind. Att använda ensembler är ett sätt att beskriva osäkerheterna i scenarierna, men det finns andra möjliga ensembler som använder andra modeller och som skulle ge andra resultat. Ändå anses den ensemble som används här vara tillräckligt lik dessa andra ensembler för att vara representativ för den hela mängden GCM:er. Dynamisk nedskalning med RCA4 förändrar klimatförändringssignalen, och spridningen i ensemblen minskar ibland, men ensemblen med nio RCA4 simuleringar med olika GCM:er anses vara representativ för den hela ensemblen. Alla scenarier är överens om mönstret på klimatförändringen, men storleken på förändringen bestäms av valet av scenario. Den relativa betydelsen av valet av scenario ökar med tiden.

Abstract [en]

This report documents Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate model simulations at 50 km horizontal resolution over Europe with the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) for i) a ERA-Interim-driven (ERAINT) simulation used to evaluate model performance in the recent past climate, ii) historical simulations of the recent decades with forcing from nine different global climate models (GCMs) and iii) future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 forced by the same nine different GCMs. Those simulations represent a subset of all CORDEX simulations produced at the Rossby Centre and a general conclusion drawn at the Rossby Centre is that such large ensembles could not have been produced without the establishment of an efficient production chain as outlined here. The first part of this report documents RCA4 and its performance in a perfect boundary simulation where ERAINT was downscaled. RCA4 is to a large extent replicating the large-scale circulation in ERAINT, but some local biases in mean sea level pressure appear. In general the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation are simulated in relatively close agreement to observations. Some biases occur, such as too much precipitation in northern Europe and too little in the south. In winter, there is also too much precipitation in eastern Europe. Temperatures are generally biased low in northern Europe and in the Mediterranean region in winter while overestimated temperatures are seen in southeastern Europe in winter and in the Mediterranean area in summer. RCA4 performs generally well when simulating the recent past climate taking boundary conditions from the GCMs. A large part of the RCA4 simulated climate is attributed to the driving GCMs, but RCA4 creates its own climate inside the model domain and adds details due to higher resolution. All nine downscaled GCMs share problems in their representation of the large-scale circulation in winter. This feature is inherited in RCA4. The biases in large-scale circulation induce some biases in temperature and precipitation in RCA4. The climate change signal in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 ensembles simulated by RCA4 is very similar to what has been presented previously. Both scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 project Europe to be warmer in the future. In winter the warming is largest in northern Europe and in summer in southern Europe. The summer maximum daily temperature increases in a way similar to summer temperature, but somewhat more in southern Europe. The winter minimum daily temperature in northern Europe is the temperature that changes the most. Precipitation is projected to increase in all seasons in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe. The largest amount of rainfall per day (and per seven day period) is projected to increase in almost all of Europe and in all seasons. At the same time the longest period without precipitation is projected to be longer in southern Europe. Small changes in mean wind speed are generally projected. There are, however, regions with significant changes in wind. The ensemble approach is a way to describe the uncertainties in the scenarios, but there are other possible ensembles using other models which would give other results. Still, the ensemble used here is found to be similar enough to these other possible ensembles to be representative of the whole set of GCMs. Dynamical downscaling using RCA4 changes the climate change signal, and the ensemble spread is sometimes reduced, but the ensemble of nine RCA4 simulations, using different GCMs, is considered to be representative of the full ensemble. All scenarios agree on a climate change pattern; the amplitude of the change is determined by the choice of scenario. The relative importance of the chosen scenario increases with time.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI, 2015. p. 75
Series
RMK: Report Meteorology and Climatology, ISSN 0347-2116 ; 116
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2839 (URN)Meteorologi, Klimat, Rapporter, Serie RMK (Local ID)Meteorologi, Klimat, Rapporter, Serie RMK (Archive number)Meteorologi, Klimat, Rapporter, Serie RMK (OAI)
Available from: 2015-06-16 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved
Wang, S., Dieterich, C., Doescher, R., Höglund, A., Hordoir, R., Meier, M., . . . Schimanke, S. (2015). Development and evaluation of a new regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 67, Article ID 24284.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Development and evaluation of a new regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model in the North Sea and Baltic Sea
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2015 (English)In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 67, article id 24284Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A new regional coupled model system for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is developed, which is composed of the regional setup of ocean model NEMO, the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, the sea ice model LIM3 and the river routing model CaMa-Flood. The performance of this coupled model system is assessed using a simulation forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries during the period 1979-2010. Compared to observations, this coupled model system can realistically simulate the present climate. Since the active coupling area covers the North Sea and Baltic Sea only, the impact of the ocean on the atmosphere over Europe is small. However, we found some local, statistically significant impacts on surface parameters like 2m air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). A precipitation-SST correlation analysis indicates that both coupled and uncoupled models can reproduce the air-sea relationship reasonably well. However, the coupled simulation gives slightly better correlations even when all seasons are taken into account. The seasonal correlation analysis shows that the air-sea interaction has a strong seasonal dependence. Strongest discrepancies between the coupled and the uncoupled simulations occur during summer. Due to lack of air-sea interaction, in the Baltic Sea in the uncoupled atmosphere-standalone run the correlation between precipitation and SST is too small compared to observations, whereas the coupled run is more realistic. Further, the correlation analysis between heat flux components and SST tendency suggests that the coupled model has a stronger correlation. Our analyses show that this coupled model system is stable and suitable for different climate change studies.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1928 (URN)10.3402/tellusa.v67.24284 (DOI)000369824300001 ()
Available from: 2016-05-02 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2018-01-10Bibliographically approved
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