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Eilola, Kari
Publications (10 of 56) Show all publications
Eilola, K. (2023). Klimatanalys för havsmiljöförvaltningen - Inledande bedömning 2023.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Klimatanalys för havsmiljöförvaltningen - Inledande bedömning 2023
2023 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

I analysen beskrivs observerade och modellerade nutida och framtida förändringar i svenska havsområden med fokus på de närliggande årtiondena. Analysen har omfattat en genomgång av olika källmaterial för följande havsmiljöparametrar: vattentemperatur, marina värmeböljor, maximal havsisutbredning, färskvattentillförsel, havsnivåer och landhöjning, salthalt och inflöden av salt till Östersjön, skiktning, vågor och strömmar, uppehållstider, uppvällning, syreförhållanden, havsförsurning och koldioxid, näringsämnen fosfor och kväve, organiskt kol, blått kol och brunifiering.

Resultaten visar att havsnivån och ytvattentemperaturen i haven runt Sverige stiger, förekomsten av nya värmerekord ökar och den maximala havsisutbredningen minskar. I sydligaste Sverige medför stigande hav redan idag problem, men längs Norrlandskusten är landhöjningen snabbare än havsnivåhöjningen. Nederbörd och avrinning från Sverige ökar och i Östersjön ökar skiktningen på grund av ökad temperatur och minskad salthalt i ytvattnet samt ökad salthalt i djupvattnet. Framtida förändringar av salthaltsberoende skiktning är osäkra. Syreförhållanden i Västerhavet och Östersjön försämras och Egentliga Östersjön har genomgått ett regimskifte med en kraftig ökning av helt syrefria områden. Totalkväve har minskat i Västerhavet. Löst oorganiskt kväve har minskat i Västerhavet, Bottenviken samt södra och västra delen av Egentliga Östersjön. Totalfosfor har ökat i alla områden utom Skagerrak. Fosfat har ökat i Östersjön och Bottenhavet men minskat i Skagerrak. Förändringar i havsförsurning är inte mätbara i centrala och norra Östersjön medan observationer i Västerhavet indikerar en minskning i pH. Siktdjupet i stora delar av Östersjön och Nordsjön har försämrats och ökad brunfärgning av vattnet tillsammans med ökade mängder av suspenderade partiklar från ökad avrinning orsakar kustzonsförmörkelse (coastal darkening). I kapitel 4 ges ett utökat sammandrag av resultat.

Slutsats från analysen är att tillståndet i våra hav håller på att förändras vilket behöver tas i beaktande vid miljöövervakning, havsplanering och havsförvaltning. En kontinuerlig övervakning är nödvändig för att följa upp effekter av åtgärder och för att upptäcka långsiktiga förändringar i havsmiljön. För planering av en hållbar utveckling behövs dessutom stöd från modeller som kan beskriva framtida förändringar och förklara samband mellan orsak och verkan från åtgärder och klimatförändringar.

Abstract [en]

 In the analysis, observed and modelled present and future changes in Swedish seas are described with a focus on the nearby decades. The analysis includes a review of various source materials for the following marine environmental parameters: water temperature, marine heat waves, maximum sea ice extent, fresh water supply, sea levels and land elevation, salinity and inflows of salt into the Baltic Sea, stratification, waves and currents, residence times, upwelling, oxygen conditions, acidification and carbon dioxide, nutrients phosphorus and nitrogen, organic carbon, blue carbon and brownification.

The results show that the sea level and surface water temperature in the seas around Sweden are rising, the occurrence of new heat records is increasing and the maximum extent of sea ice is decreasing. In southernmost Sweden, the sea level rise is already causing problems today, but along the coast of Norrland, the land rise is faster than the rising sea level. Precipitation and runoff from Sweden increase and stratification increases in the Baltic Sea due to increased temperature and reduced salinity in the surface water and increased salinity in the deep water. Future changes in salinity-dependent stratification are uncertain. Oxygen conditions in the Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea are deteriorating and the Baltic proper has undergone a regime shift with a large increase in completely oxygen-free areas. Total nitrogen has decreased in the Skagerrak and Kattegat. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen has decreased in the Skagerrak and Kattegat, the Gulf of Bothnia and in the southern and western parts of the Baltic Sea. Total phosphorus has increased in all areas except Skagerrak. Phosphate has increased in the Baltic Sea and the Bothnian Sea, but decreased in the Skagerrak. Changes in ocean acidification are not measurable in the central and northern Baltic Sea, while observations in the Skagerrak and Kattegat indicate decreased pH. The visibility depth in large parts of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea has deteriorated and increased browning of the water together with increased amounts of suspended particles from increased runoff causes coastal darkening. Chapter 4 provides an extended summary of the results.

The conclusion from the analysis is that the state of our seas is changing, which needs to be considered in monitoring, planning and management. Continuous monitoring is necessary to follow up the effects of measures and to detect long-term changes in the marine environment. For the planning of a sustainable development, support is also needed from models that can describe future changes and explain the causes and effects from measures and climate change.

Publisher
p. 58
Series
Oceanography, ISSN 0283-7714 ; 133
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6534 (URN)
Available from: 2023-12-08 Created: 2023-12-08 Last updated: 2023-12-08Bibliographically approved
Almroth-Rosell, E., Wåhlstrom, I., Hansson, M., Vali, G., Eilola, K., Andersson, P., . . . Arneborg, L. (2021). A Regime Shift Toward a More Anoxic Environment in a Eutrophic Sea in Northern Europe. Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, Article ID 799936.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Regime Shift Toward a More Anoxic Environment in a Eutrophic Sea in Northern Europe
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2021 (English)In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 8, article id 799936Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography; Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6225 (URN)10.3389/fmars.2021.799936 (DOI)000743993700001 ()
Available from: 2022-02-01 Created: 2022-02-01 Last updated: 2022-02-01Bibliographically approved
Hieronymus, J., Eilola, K., Olofsson, M., Hense, I., Meier, M. & Almroth-Rosell, E. (2021). Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics and historical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper. Biogeosciences, 18(23), 6213-6227
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling cyanobacteria life cycle dynamics and historical nitrogen fixation in the Baltic Proper
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2021 (English)In: Biogeosciences, ISSN 1726-4170, E-ISSN 1726-4189, Vol. 18, no 23, p. 6213-6227Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Ecology
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6203 (URN)10.5194/bg-18-6213-2021 (DOI)000724550200001 ()
Available from: 2021-12-14 Created: 2021-12-14 Last updated: 2021-12-14Bibliographically approved
Wåhlstrom, I., Höglund, A., Almroth-Rosell, E., MacKenzie, B. R., Groger, M., Eilola, K., . . . Andersson, H. (2020). Combined climate change and nutrient load impacts on future habitats and eutrophication indicators in a eutrophic coastal sea. Limnology and Oceanography
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Combined climate change and nutrient load impacts on future habitats and eutrophication indicators in a eutrophic coastal sea
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2020 (English)In: Limnology and Oceanography, ISSN 0024-3590, E-ISSN 1939-5590Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5665 (URN)10.1002/lno.11446 (DOI)000526159900001 ()
Available from: 2020-04-28 Created: 2020-04-28 Last updated: 2020-05-19Bibliographically approved
Kahlert, M., Eilola, K., Mack, L., Meissner, K., Sandin, L., Stromberg, H., . . . Liess, A. (2020). Gaps in current Baltic Sea environmental monitoring - Science versus management perspectives. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 160, Article ID 111669.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Gaps in current Baltic Sea environmental monitoring - Science versus management perspectives
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2020 (English)In: Marine Pollution Bulletin, ISSN 0025-326X, E-ISSN 1879-3363, Vol. 160, article id 111669Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6016 (URN)10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111669 (DOI)000587625100006 ()33181943 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2020-12-01 Created: 2020-12-01 Last updated: 2020-12-01Bibliographically approved
Meier, M., Edman, M., Eilola, K., Placke, M., Neumann, T., Andersson, H., . . . Savchuk, O. P. (2019). Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, Article ID UNSP 46.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea
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2019 (English)In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 6, article id UNSP 46Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5181 (URN)10.3389/fmars.2019.00046 (DOI)000462709300001 ()
Available from: 2019-04-09 Created: 2019-04-09 Last updated: 2020-05-19Bibliographically approved
Saraiva, S., Meier, M., Andersson, H., Höglund, A., Dieterich, C., Groger, M., . . . Eilola, K. (2019). Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates. Climate Dynamics, 52(5-6), 3369-3387
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates
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2019 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 52, no 5-6, p. 3369-3387Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography; Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5195 (URN)10.1007/s00382-018-4330-0 (DOI)000463842700049 ()
Available from: 2019-04-23 Created: 2019-04-23 Last updated: 2020-05-19Bibliographically approved
Meier, M., Eilola, K., Almroth-Rosell, E., Schimanke, S., Kniebusch, M., Höglund, A., . . . Saraiva, S. (2019). Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 1850. Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), 1145-1166
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 1850
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2019 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, no 1-2, p. 1145-1166Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5248 (URN)10.1007/s00382-018-4296-y (DOI)000471722400067 ()
Available from: 2019-07-29 Created: 2019-07-29 Last updated: 2020-04-29Bibliographically approved
Meier, M., Eilola, K., Almroth-Rosell, E., Schimanke, S., Kniebusch, M., Höglund, A., . . . Saraiva, S. (2019). Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 1850 (vol 53, pg 1145, 2019). Climate Dynamics, 53(1-2), 1167-1169
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Disentangling the impact of nutrient load and climate changes on Baltic Sea hypoxia and eutrophication since 1850 (vol 53, pg 1145, 2019)
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2019 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 53, no 1-2, p. 1167-1169Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5249 (URN)10.1007/s00382-018-4483-x (DOI)000471722400068 ()
Available from: 2019-07-29 Created: 2019-07-29 Last updated: 2020-04-29Bibliographically approved
Meier, M., Dieterich, C., Eilola, K., Groger, M., Höglund, A., Radtke, H., . . . Wåhlstrom, I. (2019). Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea. Ambio, 48(11), 1362-1376
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperature and cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea
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2019 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1362-1376Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5471 (URN)10.1007/s13280-019-01235-5 (DOI)000492594700012 ()31506843 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-11-12 Created: 2019-11-12 Last updated: 2020-04-29Bibliographically approved
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