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Dahné, Joel
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Publications (8 of 8) Show all publications
Sjökvist, E., Axén Mårtensson, J., Dahné, J., Köplin, N., Björck, E., Nylén, L., . . . Södling, J. (2015). Klimatscenarier för Sverige: Bearbetning av RCP-scenarier för meteorologiska och hydrologiska effektstudier. SMHI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Klimatscenarier för Sverige: Bearbetning av RCP-scenarier för meteorologiska och hydrologiska effektstudier
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2015 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Sveriges länsstyrelser har i uppdrag att arbeta med klimatomställning och klimatanpassning. En ny generation strålningsdrivningsscenarier, så kallade RCP-scenarier (Representative Concentration Pathways), presenterades av FN:s klimatpanel 2013 (IPCC AR5 WG1). Önskemål om en enhetlig studie för hela Sverige baserat på den senaste forskningen om framtida klimat riktades till Nationellt kunskapscentrum för klimatanpassning vid SMHI.

Abstract [en]

I studien används två RCP-scenarier, RCP4.5 som bygger på låga utsläpp, och RCP8.5 med höga utsläpp. Båda har tillämpats med 9 olika globala klimatmodeller på olika forskningsinstitut runt om i världen. De globala dataseten har bearbetats med den regionala klimatmodellen RCA4 på Rossby Centre vid SMHI. Att samtliga dataset bearbetats av endast en regional klimatmodell ger en osäkerhet i resultaten. Den regionala modellen jämfördes därför med två andra modeller och en tendens för något blötare klimatsignal i norra Sverige påvisades. Användning av andra regionala modeller för samma ensemble av globala modeller och strålningsdrivningsscenarier kan därför komma att uppvisa en något torrare klimatsignal. SMHI har tidigare utarbetat den s.k. DBS-metoden (Distribution Based Scaling) för bearbetning av klimatscenariodata för hydrologiska effektstudier. Bearbetad klimatdata från klimatmodellerna används som drivdata för hydrologisk modellering samt statistiska analyser av meteorologisk och hydrologisk klimatdata. I studien har två hydrologiska modeller använts parallellt. Varje klimatscenario har bearbetats separat men resultaten presenteras som ensembler av RCP4.5 och 8.5. Analys av årsmedeltemperatur visar på ökad temperatur för hela Sverige i framtiden, och störst ökning sker med det högintensiva scenariot RCP8.5. Skillnaden mellan referensperioden 1961-1990 och slutet av seklet är från 4 graders ökning i södra Sverige till upp mot 6 grader längst i norr. RCP4.5, strålningsdrivningsscenariot som inkluderar utsläppsbegränsningar, visar generellt 2 grader lägre uppvärmning. Nederbörden väntas öka i framtida klimat, RCP4.5 visar på 10-30% ökning och RCP8.5 15-40% ökning. Ökningen är störst i norra Sverige. Medeltillrinningen väntas öka i hela landet utom i sydöstra Sverige, där det sker en minskning i tillrinningen. Störst ökning sker i landets norra delar. RCP8.5 ger det mest extrema resultatet både där tillrinningen ökar och där den minskar. Extrema tillrinningar, 100-årsflöden, väntas öka i älvar i södra Sverige mot slutet av seklet. I nordliga älvar sker en oväsentlig ökning eller till och med en minskning av 100-årsflödets storlek. Arbetet med nedskalning av RCP-scenarier har resulterat i en gedigen databas med meteorologiska och hydrologiska klimatindex. Syftet med databasen är fortsatta studier inom framtida klimat på läns- och kommunnivå. För sådana studier är det viktigt att ha kunskaper om osäkerheten i resultaten, vilka beskrivs i denna rapport.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI, 2015. p. 68
Series
Climatology, ISSN 1654-2258 ; 15
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2844 (URN)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Local ID)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Archive number)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (OAI)
Available from: 2015-04-13 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved
Hytteborn, J. K., Temnerud, J., Alexander, R. B., Boyer, E. W., Futter, M. N., Froberg, M., . . . Bishop, K. H. (2015). Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape. Science of the Total Environment, 520, 260-269
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape
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2015 (English)In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 520, p. 260-269Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type). Catchment area (0.18-47,000 km(2)) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l(-1) (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l(-1) year(-1) (1.6% year(-1)). Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality. Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1988 (URN)10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.041 (DOI)000353509500028 ()25817763 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2016-04-25 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2018-01-10Bibliographically approved
Eklund, A., Axén Mårtensson, J., Bergström, S., Björck, E., Dahné, J., Lindström, L., . . . Sjökvist, E. (2015). Sveriges framtida klimat: Underlag till Dricksvattenutredningen. SMHI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sveriges framtida klimat: Underlag till Dricksvattenutredningen
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2015 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Det senaste resultatet från klimatforskningen har använts för att producera detaljerade analyser av Sveriges framtida klimat. Resultaten bygger på de klimatscenarier som använts av FN:s klimatpanel i dess femte utvärdering (AR5). I denna analys har två scenarier använts; RCP4.5 som innebär stora framtida utsläppsbegränsningar och RCP8.5 som innebär höga utsläpp av växthusgaser i framtiden. Beräkningar av framtidens klimat och vattentillgång bygger på nytt underlag och delvis nya förutsättningar jämfört med tidigare analyser som presenterats av SMHI. De stora dragen i den beräknade förändringen av nederbörd, temperatur, vattentillgång och flöden kvarstår från tidigare utredningar. Användningen av RCP8.5-scenariet, med sin höga framtida koncentration av växthusgaser, förstärker effekterna jämfört med tidigare publicerade analyser. Eftersom resultaten från FN:s klimatpanel (AR5) presenterades så sent som 2013 så har underlaget framtaget av SMHI präglats av ett intensivt utvecklingsarbete. Resultaten har krävt användande av ny metodik och resultaten kommer även fortsättningsvis att utvärderas av SMHI. Analysen har gjorts för ett antal parametrar som är relevanta för dricksvattenförsörjningen. I tabellen nedan visas en översiktlig sammanfattning av resultaten. Parameter Förändring Lufttemperatur Ökning i hela landet, främst i norra Sverige, främst vintertid. Medelnederbörd Ökning i hela landet, främst i Norrlands inland, främst vinter och vår. Kraftig korttidsnederbörd Ökning i hela landet, främst för de korta varaktigheterna. Vattentillgång Ökning av årsmedel i hela landet förutom östra Götaland. Ökningen är störst på vintern. Minskning på sommaren, främst i östra Götaland. 100-årsflöde och 200-årsflöde Ökning i stora delar av landet. Minskning i Norrlands inland och norra kustland samt nordvästra Svealand Lågflöden Mer vanligt i Götaland och Svealand, främst östra Götaland Havsnivåer Stigande havsnivå, nettoökningen störst i södra Sverige Temperatur Klimatberäkningarna visar på en ökning av årsmedeltemperaturen under innevarande sekel, men med stor spridning av resultaten. Störst beräknas ökningen bli i norr, vilket överensstämmer med tidigare resultat från såväl SMHI som IPCC. Skillnaderna mellan de två utsläppsscenarierna är små för perioden 2021-2050 men ökar mot slutet av århundradet. Scenario RCP4.5 innebär i medeltal en ökning på ca 3 grader till 2100 jämfört med perioden 1961-1990. För RCP8.5 är ökningen större, i medeltal ca 6 grader till 2100. Nederbörd Medelnederbörden beräknas öka i hela landet i framtiden. Störst väntas ökningen bli i Norrlands inland. Skillnaden mellan de två utsläppsscenarierna är små för perioden 2021-2050 men ökar mot slutet av århundradet. En ökning väntas under alla årstider, men främst för vintern och våren. Den extrema korttidsnederbörden beräknas bli mer intensiv i ett framtida klimat. Detta gäller främst skyfall med kort varaktighet. Vattentillgång och flöden I framtiden väntas sett över hela året en ökning av vattentillgången i stora delar av landet, främst i norra Sverige och längs Västkusten. I sydöstra Sverige väntas istället en minskning vilket beror på ökad avdunstning. I större delen av landet väntas vårfloden bli lägre och vinterflödena väntas istället öka. Ändringen i vattentillgång skiljer sig åt mellan olika årstider. Sommartid väntas en minskad vattentillgång i större delen av landet, med den största minskningen i östra Götaland. De extrema flödena väntas i framtiden inträffa mer sällan i Norrlands inland och norra kustland samt nordvästra Svealand. I övriga delar av landet väntas de extrema flödena bli vanligare. De nya beräkningarna visar att en större andel av Sveriges yta kan komma att utsättas för förstärkta extremflöden jämfört med tidigare beräkningar. I framtiden väntas antalet dagar med låga flöden bli fler i Götaland och stora delar av Svealand. Den största förändringen beräknas ske i östra Götaland. Detta är en följd av att avdunstningen ökar till följd av ökad temperatur. Havsnivå Den globala havsnivån väntas stiga i framtiden. En beräknad övre gräns för ökningen är ungefär 1 m till år 2100 enligt IPCC:s senaste utvärdering. Landhöjningen motverkar havsnivåhöjningen, speciellt i norra Sverige.

Abstract [en]

The latest results from climate research have been used to produce detailed analyses of Sweden’s future climate. The results build on the climate scenarios that have been used by the UN’s climate panel in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Two scenarios have been used in this analysis: RCP4.5, which significantly limits future emissions, and RCP8.5, which is a more conservative “business as usual” scenario. Calculations of the future climate and water availability are based on new material and some new conditions compared to analyses previously presented by SMHI. The calculated changes in precipitation, temperature, water availability and flooding are broadly the same as earlier reports. The use of the RCP8.5 scenario, with its high future concentration of greenhouse gases, strengthens the effects compared to previous analyses. Since the results of the UNs climate panel (AR5) were presented as late as 2013, the material produced by SMHI has involved intensive development. The results have required new methodologies and will continue to be evaluated by SMHI. Analyses have been made for a number of parameters that are relevant to the supply of drinking water. The table below summarises the results. Parameter Change Airtemperature Increasing in the whole country, in particular in northern Sweden, mainly during winter. Average precipitation Increasing in the whole country, in particular inland Norrland, mainly during winter and spring. Extreme short-term precipitation Increasing in the whole country, mainly for short-term heavy showers. Water availability Increasing in the whole country except for eastern Götaland. The increase is greatest during the winter. Decreasing during summer, in particular in eastern Götaland. 100-year floods and 200-year floods Increasing in large areas of the country. Decreasing in inland Norrland and the northern coast as well as north west Svealand. Low river flows Becoming more common in Götaland and Svealand, particularly in eastern Götaland. Sea levels Raised sea levels, with the greatest net rise in southern Sweden. Temperature Climate calculations show an increase in the mean annual temperature during the current century, but with a large spread of the result. The largest increase is calculated for the north, which is in agreement with earlier results from both SMHI and IPCC. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases towards the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario implies an increase of around 3 degrees on average by 2100, compared to the period 1961-1990. The increase is greater for RCP8.5, giving an average of around 6 degrees by 2100. Precipitation Average precipitation is calculated to increase for the whole country in the future. The greatest increase is expected for inland Norrland. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases by the end of the century. An increase is expected during all seasons, but mostly for winter and spring. Extreme short-term precipitation is calculated to become more intensive in a future climate. This applies particularly to short torrential showers. Water availability and flow In the future, an increase in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, particularly in northern Sweden and along the West Coast. Southern Sweden can instead expect a reduction which is due to increased evaporation. For large parts of the country the spring floods are expected to be lower and the winter floods will increase. The change in water availability differs between the seasons. During summer a decreasing in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, in particular in eastern Götaland. Extreme floods are expected to occur less often in inland Norrland, the northern coastal areas and for north western Svealand. In the rest of the country, extreme floods are expected to be more common. New calculations show that a larger part of Sweden’s area could be susceptible to stronger extreme floods compared to earlier calculations. In the future, more days with low river flows are expected in Götaland and large parts of Svealand. The greatest change is expected in eastern Götaland. This is a result of increased evaporation due to the rise in temperature. Sea level The global sea level is expected to rise in the future. A calculated upper limit for the increase has been put at about 1 m by the year 2100 according to the latest evaluation from IPCC. The land rise counteracts the rise in sea level, in particular for northern Sweden. Precipitation Average precipitation is calculated to increase for the whole country in the future. The greatest increase is expected for inland Norrland. The difference between the two emission scenarios is small for the period 2021-2050 but increases by the end of the century. An increase is expected during all seasons, but mostly for winter and spring. Extreme short-term precipitation is calculated to become more intensive in a future climate. This applies particularly to short torrential showers. Water availability and flow In the future, an increase in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, particularly in northern Sweden and along the West Coast. Southern Sweden can instead expect a reduction which is due to increased evaporation. For large parts of the country the spring floods are expected to be lower and the winter floods will increase. The change in water availability differs between the seasons. During summer a decreasing in water availability is expected in large parts of the country, in particular in eastern Götaland. Extreme floods are expected to occur less often in inland Norrland, the northern coastal areas and for north western Svealand. In the rest of the country, extreme floods are expected to be more common. New calculations show that a larger part of Sweden’s area could be susceptible to stronger extreme floods compared to earlier calculations. In the future, more days with low river flows are expected in Götaland and large parts of Svealand. The greatest change is expected in eastern Götaland. This is a result of increased evaporation due to the rise in temperature. Sea level The global sea level is expected to rise in the future. A calculated upper limit for the increase has been put at about 1 m by the year 2100 according to the latest evaluation from IPCC. The land rise counteracts the rise in sea level, in particular for northern Sweden.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI, 2015. p. 81
Series
Climatology, ISSN 1654-2258 ; 14
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2842 (URN)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Local ID)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Archive number)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (OAI)
Available from: 2015-06-01 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved
Donnelly, C., Yang, W. & Dahne, J. (2014). River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate. Climatic Change, 122(1-2), 157-170
Open this publication in new window or tab >>River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate
2014 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 122, no 1-2, p. 157-170Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study reports on new projections of discharge to the Baltic Sea given possible realisations of future climate and uncertainties regarding these projections. A high-resolution, pan-Baltic application of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was used to make transient simulations of discharge to the Baltic Sea for a mini-ensemble of climate projections representing two high emissions scenarios. The biases in precipitation and temperature adherent to climate models were adjusted using a Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) approach. As well as the climate projection uncertainty, this study considers uncertainties in the bias-correction and hydrological modelling. While the results indicate that the cumulative discharge to the Baltic Sea for 2071 to 2100, as compared to 1971 to 2000, is likely to increase, the uncertainties quantified from the hydrological model and the bias-correction method show that even with a state-of-the-art methodology, the combined uncertainties from the climate model, bias-correction and impact model make it difficult to draw conclusions about the magnitude of change. It is therefore urged that as well as climate model and scenario uncertainty, the uncertainties in the bias-correction methodology and the impact model are also taken into account when conducting climate change impact studies.

National Category
Natural Sciences Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-166 (URN)10.1007/s10584-013-0941-y (DOI)000328622900013 ()
Available from: 2015-03-31 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Arheimer, B., Dahne, J. & Donnelly, C. (2012). Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Ambio, 41(6), 600-612
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan
2012 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 41, no 6, p. 600-612Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.

Keywords
Nutrient modelling, Climate change, Remedial measures, Baltic Sea basin
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-443 (URN)10.1007/s13280-012-0323-0 (DOI)000308039100008 ()22926882 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2015-04-20 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Strömqvist, J., Arheimer, B., Dahne, J., Donnelly, C. & Lindström, G. (2012). Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57(2), 229-247
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale
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2012 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 57, no 2, p. 229-247Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A dynamic water quality model, HYPE, was applied to a large, data-sparse region to study whether reliable information on water quantity and water quality could be obtained for both gauged and ungauged waterbodies. The model (called S-HYPE) was set up for all of Sweden (similar to 450 000 km(2)), divided into sub-basins with an average area of 28 km(2). Readily available national databases were used for physiographic data, emissions and agricultural practices, fixed values for representative years were used. Daily precipitation and temperature were used as the dynamic forcing of the model. Model evaluation was based on data from several hundred monitoring sites, of which approximately 90% had not been used in calibration on a daily scale. Results were evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation and relative errors: 92% of the spatial variation was explained for specific water discharge, and 88% and 59% for total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, respectively. Day-to-day variations were modelled with satisfactory results for water discharge and the seasonal variation of nitrogen concentrations was also generally well captured. In 20 large, unregulated rivers the median NSE for water discharge was 0.84, and the corresponding number for 76 partly-regulated river basins was 0.52. In small basins, the NSE was typically above 0.6. These major achievements relative to previous similar experiments were ascribed to the step-wise calibration process using representative gauged basins and the use of amodelling concept, whereby coefficients are linked to physiographic variables rather than to specific sites.

Keywords
modelling, nitrogen, phosphorus, hydrology, calibration, predictions in ungauged basins, Sweden
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-487 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2011.637497 (DOI)000301946700003 ()
Available from: 2015-04-15 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Arheimer, B., Dahne, J., Donnelly, C., Lindström, G. & Strömqvist, J. (2012). Water and nutrient simulations using the HYPE model for Sweden vs. the Baltic Sea basin - influence of input-data quality and scale. HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, 43(4), 315-329
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Water and nutrient simulations using the HYPE model for Sweden vs. the Baltic Sea basin - influence of input-data quality and scale
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2012 (English)In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 43, no 4, p. 315-329Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Water resource management is often based on numerical models, and large-scale models are sometimes used for international strategic agreements. Sometimes the modelled area entails several political entities and river basins. To avoid methodological bias in results, methods and databases should be homogenous across political and geophysical boundaries, but this may involve fewer details and more assumptions. This paper quantifies the uncertainty when the same model code is applied using two different input datasets; a more detailed one for the country of Sweden (S-HYPE) and a more general one for the entire Baltic Sea basin (Balt-HYPE). Results from the two model applications were compared for the Swedish landmass and for two specific Swedish river basins. The results show that both model applications may be useful in providing spatial information of water and nutrients at various scales. For water discharge, most relative errors are <10% for S-HYPE and <25% for Balt-HYPE. Both applications reproduced the most mean concentration for nitrogen within 25% of the observed mean values, but phosphorus showed a larger scatter. Differences in model set-up were reflected in the simulation of both spatial and temporal dynamics. The most sensitive data were precipitation/temperature, agriculture and model parameter values.

Keywords
evaluation, large-scale, multi-basins, modelling, nutrients, water
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-482 (URN)10.2166/nh.2012.010 (DOI)000306235400002 ()
Available from: 2015-04-15 Created: 2015-04-14 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J., Dahné, J., German, J., Westergren, B., von Scherling, M., Kjellson, L. & Olsson, A. (2011). En studie av framtida flödesbelastning på Stockholms huvudavloppssystem. SMHI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>En studie av framtida flödesbelastning på Stockholms huvudavloppssystem
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2011 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Denna studie utfördes inom SWEdish research programme on Climate, Impacts and Adaptation (SWECIA), finansierat av Stiftelsen för Miljöstratgisk Forskning (MISTRA), med delfinansiering från Stockholm Vatten AB.Studiens syfte var att bedöma flödesbelastningen på Stockholms huvudavloppssystem under resten av detta sekel mot bakgrund av både klimatförändring och befolkningsökning. Som underlag gjordes flödes-simuleringar med MIKE Urban. Referenssimuleringar för dagens klimat gjordes dels för ett representativt helår (1984), dels för c:a 200 utvalda regnhändelser mellan 1983 och 2007. I framtidssimuleringar beskrevs klimateffekten genom omskalning av indata (temperatur, nederbörd, avdunstning) i enlighet med klimatmodellscenarier och befolknings-effekten genom en ökning i enlighet med officiell bedömning.Resultaten indikerar framför allt att bräddade volymer till Mälaren och Saltsjön kommer att öka kraftigt, men även ett ökat inflöde till reningsverket, och därmed ökat behov av rening, samt en ökad översvämningsrisk.

Abstract [en]

This study was performed within the SWEdish research programme on Climate, Impacts and Adaptation (SWECIA), funded by the Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA), with additional funding from Stockholm Vatten AB. The aim of the study was to assess the discharge load on Stockholm's main sewer system during the rest of this century in light of both climate change and population increase. For this assessment, flow simulations with MIKE Urban were performed. Reference simulations for today's climate were done both for a representative year (1984) and for some 200 selected rainfall events between 1983 and 2007. In future simulations the climate effect was taken into account by rescaling input data (temperature, precipitation, evaporation) in line with climate model scenarios and the population effect by an increase in line with official estimations. The results indicate in particular that the spill volumes to Lake Mälaren and Saltsjön will increase substantially, but also an increased inflow to the treatment plant, and thus an increased need for treatment, and an increased flood risk.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI, 2011. p. 96
Series
Climatology, ISSN 1654-2258 ; 3
Keywords
Climate change, population increase, Stockholm sewer system, discharge, spill, flooding
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2231 (URN)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Local ID)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Archive number)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (OAI)
Available from: 2011-02-08 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved
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