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Tonderski, K., Andersson, L., Lindström, G., St Cyr, R., Schoenberg, R. & Taubald, H. (2017). Assessing the use of delta O-18 in phosphate as a tracer for catchment phosphorus sources. Science of the Total Environment, 607, 1-10
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessing the use of delta O-18 in phosphate as a tracer for catchment phosphorus sources
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2017 (English)In: Science of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, E-ISSN 1879-1026, Vol. 607, p. 1-10Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4294 (URN)10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.06.167 (DOI)000408755300001 ()28686890 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2017-09-19 Created: 2017-09-19 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Wilk, J., Andersson, L., Graham, P., Wikner, J. J., Mokwatlo, S. & Petja, B. (2017). From forecasts to action - What is needed to make seasonal forecasts useful for South African smallholder farmers?. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 25, 202-211
Open this publication in new window or tab >>From forecasts to action - What is needed to make seasonal forecasts useful for South African smallholder farmers?
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2017 (English)In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, E-ISSN 2212-4209, Vol. 25, p. 202-211Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4424 (URN)10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.07.002 (DOI)000413937300016 ()
Available from: 2017-11-21 Created: 2017-11-21 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Andersson, L., Persson, G., Bergström, S. & Ohlsson, A. (2015). Risker, konsekvenser och sårbarhet för samhället av förändrat klimat – en kunskapsöversikt: Flertalet av de i rapporten refererade myndigheterna och organisationerna har varit aktiva iframtagandet av texterna: Materialet har sammanställts av:. SMHI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risker, konsekvenser och sårbarhet för samhället av förändrat klimat – en kunskapsöversikt: Flertalet av de i rapporten refererade myndigheterna och organisationerna har varit aktiva i framtagandet av texterna: Materialet har sammanställts av:
2015 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Regeringen gav år 2014 SMHI i uppdrag att utarbeta underlag till Kontrollstation2015 för anpassning till ett förändrat klimat. Som en del av uppdraget ingick att göra en uppdaterad sammanställning av kunskapen om nuvarande och framtida risker och konsekvenser, främst med utgångspunkt från Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningens slutbetänkande (SOU 2007:60). I föreliggande rapport beskrivs kunskapsläget kring det svenska samhällets sårbarhet för ett förändrat klimat. Klimatförändringarna påverkar hela samhället. Generellt kan sägas att medvetenheten om klimatförändringarnas påverkan har ökat, men det saknas en del kunskap och verktyg, främst på den lokala nivån. Översvämningsriskerna kring sjöar och längs vattendrag ökar, vilket kan påverka bebyggelse och infrastruktur. Risken för ras och skred tros också öka, främst i landets västra och sydvästra delar samt områden längs östra kusten. Erosion längs vattendrag, sjöar och kuster kan komma att öka i delar av landet. Vattentillgång och -kvalitet kommer att påverkas av förändrade nederbördsmönster, ökad spridning av föroreningar samt ökade mikrobiologiskarisker. Energisystemet kommer att utsättas för större påfrestningar, särskilt av extrema väderhändelser. Kunskapen har ökat kring klimatförändringarnas effekter på energisystemet, men det kvarstår kunskapsluckor relaterade till extremväder och anpassningsåtgärder. Kunskap och medvetenhet om klimatförändringarnas påverkan på kommunikationerna i samhället har ökat, men det finns fortfarande behov av mer utredning och verktyg. Förutsättningarna för jordbruket förbättras i huvudsak, med möjlighet till ökade skördar och nya grödor. Samtidigt kommer fler skadegörare och ogräs in. Nya behov av bevattning kan uppstå och markavvattningen kan behöva en översyn. Eventuellt minskat utbud av livsmedel på världsmarknaden, kan innebära ökad efterfrågan på svenska livsmedel. Samtidigt går Sverige idag mot ökat importberoende. Även djurhållningen står inför stora utmaningar. Å ena sidan kan djuren gå ute under en längre del av året och möjligheterna att vara självförsörjande med foder ökar. Men det varmare klimatet medför också risk för att nya djursjukdomar uppträder. Konsekvenserna för den svenska skogen och skogsbruket kommer att bli betydande. Ökad tillväxt ger större virkesproduktion, men ökad frekvens och omfattning av skador från främst insekter, svampar och storm samt blötare skogsmark kan föra med sig stora kostnader. Stora regionala skillnader i utbudet av kommersiellt virke kan påverka svensk skogsindustri. Förändrade förutsättningar är också att vänta för fiskbestånden. Nya fiskarter i svenska vatten kan föra med sig nya smittor och konkurrera ut befintliga arter i känsliga ekosystem. Renskötseln i Sverige kommer att allvarligt påverkas av klimatförändringarna och effekterna utgör stora utmaningar. Klimatförändringarna ger både positiva och negativa effekter för turismen. Det finns hinder för anpassningskapaciteten, bland annat bristande organisering av besöksnäringen. Människors och djurs hälsa kan påverkas direkt av extrema väderhändelser. Ett varmare klimat ger även upphov till förändrade smittspridningsmönster och nya sjukdomar kan nå Sverige. Förändringar i luft, vatten och mark, orsakade av klimatförändringar, kan också påverka hälsotillståndet för djur och människor. På nationell nivå är kunskaperna om risker för bebyggelse tillräckliga för att rekommendera åtgärder, men det saknas lokala beslutsunderlag. För kulturarvet behöver kunskapen öka. Klimatförändringarna förväntas leda till förändringar för den biologiska mångfalden och ekosystemen. Det påverkar förmågan att nå flera av Sveriges miljömål och behöver ses i samband med andra miljöhot. Det finns bland annat behov av regionala kartläggningar av hur arter, ekosystem, naturtyper och biologisk mångfald kan påverkas. Risk- och säkerhetsperspektivet har växt fram under senare år, men präglas av utmaningar avseende metoder. Mycket få studier behandlar förhållanden i Sverige.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI, 2015. p. 96
Series
Climatology, ISSN 1654-2258 ; 10
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2847 (URN)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Local ID)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Archive number)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (OAI)
Available from: 2015-02-27 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved
Andersson, L., Bohman, A., van Well, L., Jonsson, A., Persson, G. & Farelius, J. (2015). Underlag till kontrollstation 2015 för anpassning till ett förändrat klimat. SMHI
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Underlag till kontrollstation 2015 för anpassning till ett förändrat klimat
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2015 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Regeringen gav 2014 SMHI i uppdrag att följa upp och analysera det arbete med klimatanpassning som skett sedan Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen 2007. Inom uppdraget har bedömningar gjorts av återstående behov av åtgärder, och förslag lämnas på fortsatt arbete med klimatanpassning. Klimatförändringarna medför att Sverige blir både varmare och blötare. Risken för extremväder ökar med tillhörande problem för viktiga samhällsfunktioner. Kommunerna och andra lokala aktörer är de som står för huvuddelen av genomförandet av konkreta åtgärder och praktisk implementering av klimatanpassningsarbetet i Sverige. För att klimatanpassning ska kunna genomföras på lokal och regional nivå krävs dock nationellt stöd. Det behövs en nationell färdplan för att de samhällsekonomiska kostnaderna ska hållas så låga som möjligt. Viktiga delar i en sådan färdplan är anpassning av regelverk och att tydliggöra roller och ansvar samt strategier och mål. Det är nödvändigt att snabbt klarlägga hur kostnader fördelas mellan olika aktörer, och hur det säkerställs att resurser finns tillgängliga till prioriterade åtgärder. Klimatanpassning är inte enbart en lokal och nationell fråga. Sverige bör som aktiv medlem i EU driva klimatanpassningsfrågan framåt. Dessutom bör svensk klimatanpassningspolitik ta hänsyn till att Sverige även påverkas indirekt av klimatförändringar som sker i andra länder. Behov av såväl forsknings- som utvecklingsinsatser har identifierats, liksom långtidsövervakning av klimatförändringar och dess effekter. Att tillgängliggöra kunskap, beslutsstöd, prognos- och varningssystem är en av nycklarna till verkningsfullt arbete. I rapporten konstateras också att näringslivet och försäkringsbranschen har viktiga roller att spela i klimatanpassningsarbetet när frågor kring risker, investeringsbeslut och nya affärsmöjligheter kommer att stå i fokus.

Abstract [en]

As the climate changes, actors on all levels and in all sectors will be affected. Thus it is imperative that authorities, municipalities, businesses and individual property owners all take action. Flooding, heat waves, landslides and erosion are only a few examples of the challenges that that society faces and needs to prepare for. Sweden must adapt to the impacts of a changing climate, as well as the indirect effects of climate change impacts in other parts of the world. The costs of adaptation can be high, but the European Commission, among others, has deemed that it still pays to adapt in relation to the costs incurred if no action is taken. Climate adaptation initiatives in Sweden have advanced significantly in recent years. Notable examples include governmental missions for a national elevation database, landslide risk mapping in the Göta Älv River Valley, the Swedish drinking water investigation, the County Administrative Boards’ regional climate change action plans, and the establishment of the National Knowledge Centre for Climate Adaptation. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s mission to survey, analyse and follow-up on climate adaptation work in Sweden has shown that there is still a considerable need for further measures. This report provides proposals for a road map for climate adaptation in Sweden and concludes that climate adaptation is best conducted in a long-term manner, that roles and responsibilities should be made more transparent, and that better coordination among the many actors involved in climate adaptation is necessary. The most important conclusions for continued work are:  Laws and regulations need to be adapted; roles and responsibilities as well as strategies and goals should be made clearer.  Priority and funding should be given to research and development measures that fill an identified knowledge-gap, including long-term monitoring.  Knowledge and decision support as well as prognoses and warning systems should be more accessible.  There is a need to outline how the costs of adaptation should be distributed among actors and how resources for prioritised measures can be guaranteed. This mission has compiled knowledge of the current and future risks and consequences for society of a changing climate, such as effects on vital societal functions and human health. The mission has also surveyed the work that has been done since the publication of the final report of the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability in 2007. From this background material our goal has been to describe the gaps and challenges and provide suggestions for how adaptation can be approached in various sectors of society. The EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change has been an important point of departure. The work has been performed in cooperation with national and regional authorities, municipalities, researchers, sectoral organisations and representatives of the private sector This report is comprised of a main report and 18 annexes. Chapter 3 of the main report is a synthesis of all of the proposals made throughout the document and as such can be seen as a road map to ensure that Sweden adapts to a changing climate.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
SMHI, 2015. p. 296
Series
Climatology, ISSN 1654-2258 ; 12
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2845 (URN)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Local ID)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (Archive number)Klimat, Rapporter, Serie Klimatologi (OAI)
Available from: 2015-03-18 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2016-07-08Bibliographically approved
Wilk, J., Andersson, L. & Warburton, M. (2013). Adaptation to climate change and other stressors among commercial and small-scale South African farmers. Regional Environmental Change, 13(2), 273-286
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Adaptation to climate change and other stressors among commercial and small-scale South African farmers
2013 (English)In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 13, no 2, p. 273-286Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Commercial and small-scale farmers in South Africa are exposed to many challenges. Interviews with 44 farmers in the upper Thukela basin, KwaZulu-Natal, were conducted to identify common and specific challenges for the two groups and adaptive strategies for dealing with the effects of climate and other stressors. This work was conducted as part of a larger participatory project with local stakeholders to develop a local adaptation plan for coping with climate variability and change. Although many challenges related to exposure to climate variability and change, weak agricultural policies, limited governmental support, and theft were common to both farming communities, their adaptive capacities were vastly different. Small-scale farmers were more vulnerable due to difficulties to finance the high input costs of improved seed varieties and implements, limited access to knowledge and agricultural techniques for water and soil conservation and limited customs of long-term planning. In addition to temperature and drought-related challenges, small-scale farmers were concerned about soil erosion, water logging and livestock diseases, challenges for which the commercial farmers already had efficient adaptation strategies in place. The major obstacle hindering commercial farmers with future planning was the lack of clear directives from the government, for example, with regard to issuing of water licences and land reform. Enabling agricultural communities to procure sustainable livelihoods requires implementation of strategies that address the common and specific challenges and strengthen the adaptive capacity of both commercial and small-scale farmers. Identified ways forward include knowledge transfer within and across farming communities, clear governmental directives and targeted locally adapted finance programmes.

Keywords
Adaptive capacity, Climate change, Water resources management, Vulnerability, Sustainable agriculture, South Africa
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-384 (URN)10.1007/s10113-012-0323-4 (DOI)000316782500005 ()
Available from: 2015-04-10 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Andersson, L., Wilk, J., Graham, P. & Warburton, M. (2013). Design and test of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local climate adaptation plan. Climate and Development, 5(3), 217-228
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Design and test of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local climate adaptation plan
2013 (English)In: Climate and Development, ISSN 1756-5529, E-ISSN 1756-5537, Vol. 5, no 3, p. 217-228Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article presents the design and testing of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local adaptation plan to climate change. The pilot study focused on small-scale and commercial agriculture, water supply, housing, wildlife, livestock and biodiversity in the Thukela River basin, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The methodology was based on stakeholders identifying and ranking the severity of climate-related challenges, and downscaled stakeholder-identified information provided by modellers, with the aim of addressing possible changes of exposure in the future. The methodology enables the integration of model-based information with experience and visions based on local realities. It includes stakeholders' own assessments of their vulnerability to prevailing climate variability and the severity, if specified, of climate-related problems that may occur more often in the future. The methodology made it possible to identify the main issues to focus on in the adaptation plan, including barriers to adaptation. We make recommendations for how to design a model-assisted participatory process, emphasizing the need for transparency, to recognize the interests of the stakeholders, good advance planning, local relevance, involvement of local champions, and adaptation of Information material to each group's previous experience and understanding.

Keywords
adaptation, climate change, hydrology, participation, Africa
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-363 (URN)10.1080/17565529.2013.812955 (DOI)000324365900005 ()
Available from: 2015-04-10 Created: 2015-03-31 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J. A., Jonsson, A. C., Andersson, L. & Arheimer, B. (2011). A model-supported participatory process for nutrient management: a socio-legal analysis of a bottom-up implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 9(2), 379-389
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A model-supported participatory process for nutrient management: a socio-legal analysis of a bottom-up implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive
2011 (English)In: International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, ISSN 1473-5903, E-ISSN 1747-762X, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 379-389Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A methodology for local stakeholders' involvement in water management using a catchment model as a platform for dialogue has been developed and tested in the Kaggebo Bay drainage area in the southeast of Sweden. The process involved farmers, rural households not connected to municipal wastewater treatment facilities, local and regional authorities as well as different water and agricultural experts. This paper aims to assess whether and how the methodology has succeeded in encouraging social learning and promoting action and which barriers can be identified. The assessment shows that the methodology is able to create confidence in the process and increase the willingness to act as the methodology was able to adapt the form and content of the dialogue to better fit the cognitive and relational needs of involved stakeholders. It is also shown that the process may lead to a probable improvement of the eutrophication situation. However, if these types of processes are to serve not only as a basis for social learning and action at the local level, but also as the basis for a broader process of societal learning, then a mechanism to confer local ideas to the regional and national levels has to be clarified.

Keywords
models, participation, social learning, sustainability, WFD
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-523 (URN)10.1080/14735903.2011.582361 (DOI)000293146500008 ()
Available from: 2015-04-16 Created: 2015-04-15 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Andersson, L., Samuelsson, P. & Kjellström, E. (2011). Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 63(1), 138-157
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin
2011 (English)In: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, ISSN 0280-6495, E-ISSN 1600-0870, Vol. 63, no 1, p. 138-157Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4524 (URN)10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00480.x (DOI)000285309200010 ()
Available from: 2018-03-19 Created: 2018-03-19 Last updated: 2018-03-19Bibliographically approved
Graham, P., Andersson, L., Horan, M., Kunz, R., Lumsden, T., Schulze, R., . . . Yang, W. (2011). Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa. Paper presented at 11th WaterNet/WARFSA/GWP-SA Annual Symposium, OCT 27-29, 2010, Victoria Falls, ZIMBABWE. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 36(14-15), 727-735
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa
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2011 (English)In: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, ISSN 1474-7065, E-ISSN 1873-5193, Vol. 36, no 14-15, p. 727-735Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords
Climate change, Hydrological impacts, Regional downscaling, Thukela River Basin
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-536 (URN)10.1016/j.pce.2011.07.084 (DOI)000296306100003 ()
Conference
11th WaterNet/WARFSA/GWP-SA Annual Symposium, OCT 27-29, 2010, Victoria Falls, ZIMBABWE
Available from: 2015-04-15 Created: 2015-04-15 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Taubald, H., Tonderski, K., Andersson, L., Ronnberg, R. & Ahlgren, J. (2010). Oxygen isotopes in phosphate as a tracer for sources and pathways of catchment P in stream water. Paper presented at Conference on Goldschmidt 2010 - Earth, Energy, and the Environment, JUN 13-18, 2010, Knoxville, TN. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 74(12), A1030-A1030
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Oxygen isotopes in phosphate as a tracer for sources and pathways of catchment P in stream water
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2010 (English)In: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, ISSN 0016-7037, E-ISSN 1872-9533, Vol. 74, no 12, p. A1030-A1030Article in journal, Meeting abstract (Other academic) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-563 (URN)000283941400100 ()
Conference
Conference on Goldschmidt 2010 - Earth, Energy, and the Environment, JUN 13-18, 2010, Knoxville, TN
Available from: 2015-04-22 Created: 2015-04-20 Last updated: 2018-01-11Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-5632-8908

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