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Leung, W., Windmark, F., Brodl, L. & Langner, J. (2018). A basis to estimate marginal cost for air traffic in Sweden.: Modelling of ozone, primary and secondary particles and deposition of sulfur and nitrogen..
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A basis to estimate marginal cost for air traffic in Sweden.: Modelling of ozone, primary and secondary particles and deposition of sulfur and nitrogen.
2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In this study we have investigated the effects of emissions from aviation on air quality in both Swedish and European domains. The results will be used as a basis to estimate the marginal cost for air traffic in Sweden. The vertical, geographical and temporal distribution of aviation emissions over Sweden has been estimated using a newly developed methodology. The aviation emissions have been categorized by their emission altitude (LTO, low cruise and high cruise) and flight nationality (international, national and overflight). This aviation emission information was then used as input data to the regional atmospheric chemistry model MATCH to simulate the effects of aviation emissions on ecosystem, health and climate metrics. A total of 17 model simulations over three years have been performed. There is one simulation in which all emitted species from the surface and aviation emissions are included and eight simulations in which all aviation emissions from each combination of emission altitude and flight nationality are included. There are eight simulations in which NOx aviation emissions from each combination of emission altitude and flight nationality are included. Using these simulations, contributions from aviation emissions to deposition, concentrations and a range of different air pollution metrics has been calculated. The results are calculated in both the Europe and Swedish domains for all the simulations. 

The following results are included in this report: . Deposition of oxidised and reduced nitrogen . Deposition of excess sulfur . AOT40 and SOMO35 and their exposures . Concentration and exposure of primary and secondary particles . Concentration of nitrate and sulfate particles . Concentration of surface and above surface ozone 

In summary, contributions from aviation emissions in Sweden to the different concentrations, deposition and metrics for environmental effects are generally small, on the order of a few per mille or less. However the impacts can be traced in the simulations well beyond the Swedish borders. LTO emissions give the largest contribution to deposition of oxidised and reduced nitrogen, deposition of excess sulfur and concentrations of primary and secondary particles. In particular near the major airports like Stockholm-Arlanda and Gothenburg-Landvetter. High cruise emissions give insignificant contributions to deposition and concentrations at surface level. LTO emissions give a negative contribution to surface ozone concentration locally at the main Swedish airports but give an overall increased contribution in the regions around. Aviation emissions at low cruise and high cruise levels have the largest effect on ozone concentrations at higher levels. 

Publisher
p. 64
Series
Meteorology, ISSN 0283-7730 ; 162
Keywords
Air quality, MATCH, dispersion modelling, marginal cost, emissions, flight, air traffic
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Research subject
Meteorology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4960 (URN)
Available from: 2018-09-07 Created: 2018-09-07 Last updated: 2018-09-07Bibliographically approved
Karlsson, P. E., Klingberg, J., Engardt, M., Andersson, C., Langner, J., Karlsson, G. P. & Pleijel, H. (2017). Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, 576, 22-35
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe
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2017 (English)In: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, ISSN 0048-9697, Vol. 576, p. 22-35Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3916 (URN)10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.061 (DOI)000390964700003 ()
Available from: 2017-02-08 Created: 2017-02-08 Last updated: 2017-02-08Bibliographically approved
Soares, J., Sofiev, M., Geels, C., Christensen, J. H., Andersson, C., Tsyro, S. & Langner, J. (2016). Impact of climate change on the production and transport of sea salt aerosol on European seas. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 16(20), 13081-13104
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact of climate change on the production and transport of sea salt aerosol on European seas
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2016 (English)In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 16, no 20, p. 13081-13104Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3729 (URN)10.5194/acp-16-13081-2016 (DOI)000387112200001 ()
Available from: 2016-12-06 Created: 2016-12-06 Last updated: 2017-11-29Bibliographically approved
Sand, M., Berntsen, T. K., von Salzen, K., Flanner, M. G., Langner, J. & Victor, D. G. (2016). Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers. Nature Climate Change, 6(3), 286-+
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers
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2016 (English)In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 286-+Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

There is growing scientific(1,2) and political(3,4) interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the global rate, largely as a result of ice-albedo and temperature feedbacks(5-8). Although deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs; refs 9,10). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation are seen more quickly than for mitigation of CO2 and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality(11). This Letter is one of the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCFs emissions, taking into account black carbon (BC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone (O-3), and their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. This study extends the scope of previous works(2,12) by including more detailed calculations of Arctic radiative forcing and quantifying the Arctic temperature response. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations owing to the large absolute amount of emissions. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. Astringent, but technically feasible mitigation scenario for SLCFs, phased in from 2015 to 2030, could cut warming by 0.2 (+/- 0.17) K in 2050.

National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2032 (URN)10.1038/NCLIMATE2880 (DOI)000370964000019 ()
Available from: 2016-05-03 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Mahmood, R., von Salzen, K., Flanner, M., Sand, M., Langner, J., Wang, H. & Huang, L. (2016). Seasonality of global and Arctic black carbon processes in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme models. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 121(12), 7100-7116
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Seasonality of global and Arctic black carbon processes in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme models
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2016 (English)In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 121, no 12, p. 7100-7116Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3135 (URN)10.1002/2016JD024849 (DOI)000381631800025 ()
External cooperation:
Available from: 2016-09-14 Created: 2016-09-14 Last updated: 2017-11-21Bibliographically approved
Arnold, S. R., Emmons, L. K., Monks, S. A., Law, K. S., Ridley, D. A., Turquety, S., . . . Long, Y. (2015). Biomass burning influence on high-latitude tropospheric ozone and reactive nitrogen in summer 2008: a multi-model analysis based on POLMIP simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 15(11), 6047-6068
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Biomass burning influence on high-latitude tropospheric ozone and reactive nitrogen in summer 2008: a multi-model analysis based on POLMIP simulations
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2015 (English)In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 15, no 11, p. 6047-6068Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We have evaluated tropospheric ozone enhancement in air dominated by biomass burning emissions at high latitudes (>50 degrees N) in July 2008, using 10 global chemical transport model simulations from the POLMIP multimodel comparison exercise. In model air masses dominated by fire emissions, Delta O-3/Delta CO values ranged between 0.039 and 0.196 ppbv ppbv(-1) (mean: 0.113 ppbv ppbv(-1)) in freshly fire-influenced air, and between 0.140 and 0.261 ppbv ppb(-1) (mean: 0.193 ppbv) in more aged fire-influenced air. These values are in broad agreement with the range of observational estimates from the literature. Model Delta PAN/Delta CO enhancement ratios show distinct groupings according to the meteorological data used to drive the models. ECMWF-forced models produce larger Delta PAN/Delta CO values (4.47 to 7.00 pptv ppbv(-1)) than GEOS5-forced models (1.87 to 3.28 pptv ppbv(-1)), which we show is likely linked to differences in efficiency of vertical transport during poleward export from mid-latitude source regions. Simulations of a large plume of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions exported from towards the Arctic using a Lagrangian chemical transport model show that 4-day net ozone change in the plume is sensitive to differences in plume chemical composition and plume vertical position among the POLMIP models. In particular, Arctic ozone evolution in the plume is highly sensitive to initial concentrations of PAN, as well as oxygenated VOCs (acetone, acetaldehyde), due to their role in producing the peroxyacetyl radical PAN precursor. Vertical displacement is also important due to its effects on the stability of PAN, and subsequent effect on NOx abundance. In plumes where net ozone production is limited, we find that the lifetime of ozone in the plume is sensitive to hydrogen peroxide loading, due to the production of HOx from peroxide photolysis, and the key role of HO2 + O-3 in controlling ozone loss. Overall, our results suggest that emissions from biomass burning lead to large-scale photochemical enhancement in high-latitude tropospheric ozone during summer.

National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1976 (URN)10.5194/acp-15-6047-2015 (DOI)000356180900004 ()
Available from: 2016-04-26 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Eckhardt, S., Quennehen, B., Olivie, D. J., Berntsen, T. K., Cherian, R., Christensen, J. H., . . . Stohl, A. (2015). Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 15(16), 9413-9433
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set
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2015 (English)In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 15, no 16, p. 9413-9433Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008-2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January-March underestimated by 59 and 37% for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44% for July-September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1955 (URN)10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015 (DOI)000360646500020 ()
Available from: 2016-04-27 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Astrom, C., Ebi, K. L., Langner, J. & Forsberg, B. (2015). Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12(1), 254-267
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures
2015 (English)In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 12, no 1, p. 254-267Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Over the last two decades a number of heatwaves have brought the need for heatwave early warning systems (HEWS) to the attention of many European governments. The HEWS in Europe are operating under the assumption that there is a high correlation between observed and forecasted temperatures. We investigated the sensitivity of different temperature mortality relationships when using forecast temperatures. We modelled mortality in Stockholm using observed temperatures and made predictions using forecast temperatures from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts to assess the sensitivity. We found that the forecast will alter the expected future risk differently for different temperature mortality relationships. The more complex models seemed more sensitive to inaccurate forecasts. Despite the difference between models, there was a high agreement between models when identifying risk-days. We find that considerations of the accuracy in temperature forecasts should be part of the design of a HEWS. Currently operating HEWS do evaluate their predictive performance; this information should also be part of the evaluation of the epidemiological models that are the foundation in the HEWS. The most accurate description of the relationship between high temperature and mortality might not be the most suitable or practical when incorporated into a HEWS.

National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2017 (URN)10.3390/ijerph120100254 (DOI)000348403300014 ()25546283 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2016-04-06 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30
Simpson, D., Bartnicki, J., Jalkanen, J.-P., Hansson, H.-C., Hertel, O., Langner, J. & Pryor, S. C. (2015). Environmental Impacts-Atmospheric Chemistry. In: : (pp. 267-289).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Environmental Impacts-Atmospheric Chemistry
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2015 (English)Chapter in book (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This chapter addresses sources and trends of atmospheric pollutants and deposition in relation to the Baltic Sea region. Air pollution is shown to have important effects, including significant contributions to nitrogen loading of the Baltic Sea area, ecosystem impacts due to acidifying and eutrophying pollutants and ozone, and human health impacts. Compounds such as sulphate and ozone also have climate impacts. Emission changes have been very significant over the past 100 years, although very different for land-and sea-based sources. Land-based emissions generally peaked around 1980-1990 and have since reduced due to emissions control measures. Emissions from shipping have been steadily increasing for decades, but recent measures have reduced sulphur and particulate emissions. Future developments depend strongly on policy developments. Changes in concentration and deposition of the acidifying components generally follow emission changes within the European area. Mean ozone levels roughly doubled during the twentieth century across the northern hemisphere, but peak levels have reduced in many regions in the past 20 years. The main changes in air pollution in the Baltic Sea region are due to changes in emissions rather than to climate change.

Series
SECOND ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE BALTIC SEA BASIN
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Environment
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2043 (URN)10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_15 (DOI)000367908100020 ()
Available from: 2016-05-03 Created: 2016-05-02 Last updated: 2016-05-03Bibliographically approved
Thomas, M. A., Kahnert, M., Andersson, C., Kokkola, H., Hansson, U., Jones, C., . . . Devasthale, A. (2015). Integration of prognostic aerosol-cloud interactions in a chemistry transport model coupled offline to a regional climate model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(6), 1885-1898
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integration of prognostic aerosol-cloud interactions in a chemistry transport model coupled offline to a regional climate model
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2015 (English)In: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 8, no 6, p. 1885-1898Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To reduce uncertainties and hence to obtain a better estimate of aerosol (direct and indirect) radiative forcing, next generation climate models aim for a tighter coupling between chemistry transport models and regional climate models and a better representation of aerosol-cloud interactions. In this study, this coupling is done by first forcing the Rossby Center regional climate model (RCA4) with ERA-Interim lateral boundaries and sea surface temperature (SST) using the standard cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) formulation (hereafter, referred to as the 'stand-alone RCA4 version' or 'CTRL' simulation). In the stand-alone RCA4 version, CDNCs are constants distinguishing only between land and ocean surface. The meteorology from this simulation is then used to drive the chemistry transport model, Multiple-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), which is coupled online with the aerosol dynamics model, Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications (SALSA). CDNC fields obtained from MATCH-SALSA are then fed back into a new RCA4 simulation. In this new simulation (referred to as 'MOD' simulation), all parameters remain the same as in the first run except for the CDNCs provided by MATCH-SALSA. Simulations are carried out with this model setup for the period 2005-2012 over Europe, and the differences in cloud microphysical properties and radiative fluxes as a result of local CDNC changes and possible model responses are analysed. Our study shows substantial improvements in cloud microphysical properties with the input of the MATCH-SALSA derived 3-D CDNCs compared to the stand-alone RCA4 version. This model setup improves the spatial, seasonal and vertical distribution of CDNCs with a higher concentration observed over central Europe during boreal summer (JJA) and over eastern Europe and Russia during winter (DJF). Realistic cloud droplet radii (CD radii) values have been simulated with the maxima reaching 13 mu m, whereas in the stand-alone version the values reached only 5 mu m. A substantial improvement in the distribution of the cloud liquid-water paths (CLWP) was observed when compared to the satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the boreal summer months. The median and standard deviation values from the 'MOD' simulation are closer to observations than those obtained using the stand-alone RCA4 version. These changes resulted in a significant decrease in the total annual mean net fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by -5 W m(-2) over the domain selected in the study. The TOA net fluxes from the 'MOD' simulation show a better agreement with the retrievals from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument. The aerosol indirect effects are estimated in the 'MOD' simulation in comparison to the pre-industrial aerosol emissions (1900). Our simulations estimated the domain averaged annual mean total radiative forcing of -0.64 W m(-2) with a larger contribution from the first indirect aerosol effect (-0.57 W m(-2)) than from the second indirect aerosol effect (-0.14 W m(-2)).

National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1972 (URN)10.5194/gmd-8-1885-2015 (DOI)000357125000019 ()
Available from: 2016-04-26 Created: 2016-03-03 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-2757-2864

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