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Olsson, J., Berg, P., Eronn, A., Simonsson, L., Södling, J., Wern, L. & Yang, W. (2018). Extremregn i nuvarande och framtida klimat Analyser av observationer och framtidsscenarier.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Extremregn i nuvarande och framtida klimat Analyser av observationer och framtidsscenarier
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2018 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [sv]

Studien har främst omfattat analyser av extrem korttidsnederbörd i observationer från SMHIs nät av automatiska meteorologiska stationer. Även analyser av korttidsnederbörd från kommunala mätare, manuella meteorologiska stationer, väderradar och klimatmodeller har genomförts. De huvudsakliga slutsatserna från detta uppdrag kan sammanfattas enligt följande.

  • En regionalisering av extrem korttidsnederbörd (skyfall) i Sverige gav fyra regioner: sydvästra (SV), sydöstra (SÖ), mellersta (M) och norra (N) Sverige. Ytterligare indelning kan göras men i denna studie prioriterades att ha regioner av denna storleksordning för att få ett ordentligt underlag för regional statistik. Regionaliseringen gäller enbart korttidsnederbörd, upp till maximalt 12 tim varaktighet.
  • Den regionala statistiken uppvisar tämligen distinkta geografiska skillnader, med högst värden i region SV och lägst i region N. Det är inte förvånande att vårt avlånga land uppvisar regionala skillnader då varmare och fuktigare luftmassor förekommer mer i söder än i norr, och därmed ökar förutsättningarna för intensiv nederbörd. Den regionala statistiken överensstämmer överlag väl med motsvarande statistik i våra grannländer.
  • Under perioden 1996-2017 finns inga tydliga tidsmässiga tendenser vad gäller skyfallens storlek och frekvens i de olika regionerna, utan dessa ligger överlag på en konstant nivå. Inte heller extrem dygnsnederbörd sedan 1900 uppvisar några tydliga tendenser på regional nivå. På nationell nivå indikeras en svag ökning av dels landets högsta årliga nederbörd sedan 1881, dels förekomsten av stora, utbredda 2-dygnsregn sedan 1961.
  • Skyfallsstatistik baserad på nederbördsobservationer från väderradar som justerats mot interpolerade stationsdata (HIPRAD) överensstämmer väl med stationsbaserad statistik för korta varaktigheter (upp till 2 tim) i södra Sverige. För längre varaktigheter och i mellersta och norra Sverige överskattar HIPRAD regnvolymerna.
  • Analyser av de senaste klimatmodellerna (Euro-CORDEX) indikerar en underskattning av extrema regnvolymer för korta varaktigheter (1 tim) men överlag en realistisk beskrivning av observerad skyfallsstatistik. Den framtida ökningen av volymerna beräknas ligga mellan 10% och 40% beroende på tidshorisont och koncentration av växthusgaser, vilket överlag ligger nära tidigare bedömningar.

Både för bedömningen av regionala skillnader och historiska klimateffekter är det av största vikt att bibehålla, eller ännu hellre utöka, observationerna av korttidsnederbörd i Sverige. Nederbördsmätning via alternativa tekniker bör kunna användas i allt högre utsträckning framöver för förbättrad kunskap och statistik. Väderradar är redan etablerat och den digitala utvecklingen öppnar även möjligheter till insamling av nederbördsdata och relaterad information via mobilmaster, uppkopplade privata väderstationer, sociala medier, etc. Denna utveckling måste bevakas, utvärderas och i största möjliga utsträckning utnyttjas.

Publisher
p. 367
Series
Climatology, ISSN 1654-2258 ; 47
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
Climate
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4505 (URN)
Available from: 2018-02-22 Created: 2018-02-22 Last updated: 2018-02-22Bibliographically approved
Foster, K., Uvo, C. B. & Olsson, J. (2018). The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(5), 2953-2970
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers
2018 (English)In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN 1027-5606, E-ISSN 1607-7938, Vol. 22, no 5, p. 2953-2970Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4683 (URN)10.5194/hess-22-2953-2018 (DOI)000432476000001 ()
Available from: 2018-06-05 Created: 2018-06-05 Last updated: 2018-06-05Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J., Pers, C., Bengtsson, L., Pechlivanidis, I., Berg, P. & Körnich, H. (2017). Distance-dependent depth-duration analysis in high-resolution hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting: A case study in Malmo City, Sweden. Environmental Modelling & Software, 93, 381-397
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Distance-dependent depth-duration analysis in high-resolution hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting: A case study in Malmo City, Sweden
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2017 (English)In: Environmental Modelling & Software, ISSN 1364-8152, E-ISSN 1873-6726, Vol. 93, p. 381-397Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4135 (URN)10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.025 (DOI)000403512500026 ()
Available from: 2017-08-08 Created: 2017-08-08 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Selim, T., Persson, M. & Olsson, J. (2017). Impact of spatial rainfall resolution on point-source solute transport modelling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(16), 2587-2596
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Impact of spatial rainfall resolution on point-source solute transport modelling
2017 (English)In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, ISSN 0262-6667, E-ISSN 2150-3435, Vol. 62, no 16, p. 2587-2596Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4486 (URN)10.1080/02626667.2017.1403029 (DOI)000422683900001 ()
Available from: 2018-01-29 Created: 2018-01-29 Last updated: 2018-01-29Bibliographically approved
Akselsson, C., Olsson, J., Belyazid, S. & Capell, R. (2016). Can increased weathering rates due to future warming compensate for base cation losses following whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests?. Biogeochemistry, 128(1-2), 89-105
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Can increased weathering rates due to future warming compensate for base cation losses following whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests?
2016 (English)In: Biogeochemistry, ISSN 0168-2563, E-ISSN 1573-515X, Vol. 128, no 1-2, p. 89-105Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2161 (URN)10.1007/s10533-016-0196-6 (DOI)000374557300006 ()
Available from: 2016-06-15 Created: 2016-06-15 Last updated: 2018-01-10Bibliographically approved
Berg, P., Norin, L. & Olsson, J. (2016). Creation of a high resolution precipitation data set by merging gridded gauge data and radar observations for Sweden. Journal of Hydrology, 541, 6-13
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Creation of a high resolution precipitation data set by merging gridded gauge data and radar observations for Sweden
2016 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology, ISSN 0022-1694, E-ISSN 1879-2707, Vol. 541, p. 6-13Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3570 (URN)10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.11.031 (DOI)000386421200002 ()
Available from: 2016-11-23 Created: 2016-11-23 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J., Arheimer, B., Borris, M., Donnelly, C., Foster, K., Nikulin, G., . . . Yang, W. (2016). Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden. CLIMATE, 4(3), Article ID 39.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden
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2016 (English)In: CLIMATE, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4, no 3, article id 39Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3255 (URN)10.3390/cli4030039 (DOI)000382625300006 ()
Available from: 2016-10-04 Created: 2016-10-04 Last updated: 2018-01-14Bibliographically approved
Olsson, J., Arheimer, B., Borris, M., Donnelly, C., Foster, K., Nikulin, G., . . . Yang, W. (2016). Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Recent Progress and Current Issues.. Climate, 4(3)(39)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Recent Progress and Current Issues.
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2016 (English)In: Climate, ISSN 2225-1154, Vol. 4(3), no 39Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3928 (URN)10.3390/cli4030039 (DOI)
Available from: 2017-02-22 Created: 2017-02-22 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Pechlivanidis, I. G., Olsson, J., Bosshard, T., Sharma, D. & Sharma, K. C. (2016). Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent. Water, 8(5), Article ID 177.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent
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2016 (English)In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 8, no 5, article id 177Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Indian subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the Distribution-Based Scaling (DBS) method and used to force the HYPE hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. We also assess the changes in the annual cycles in three major rivers located in different hydro-climatic regions. Results show that conclusions can be influenced by uncertainty in the RCP scenarios. Future scenarios project a gradual increase in temperature (up to 7 degrees C on average), whilst changes (both increase and decrease) in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration are more severe at the end of the century. The potential change (increase and decrease) in runoff could reach 100% depending on the region and time horizon. Analysis of annual cycles for three selected regions showed that changes in discharge and evapotranspiration due to climate change vary between seasons, whereas the magnitude of change is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. Irrigation needs and the snow depth in the Himalayas are also affected.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2855 (URN)10.3390/w8050177 (DOI)
Available from: 2016-08-23 Created: 2016-08-23 Last updated: 2018-01-10Bibliographically approved
Pechlivanidis, I. G., Olsson, J., Bosshard, T., Sharma, D. & Sharma, K. C. (2016). Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent. Water, 8(5), 177-177
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent
Show others...
2016 (English)In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 8, no 5, p. 177-177Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Indian subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the Distribution-Based Scaling (DBS) method and used to force the HYPE hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. We also assess the changes in the annual cycles in three major rivers located in different hydro-climatic regions. Results show that conclusions can be influenced by uncertainty in the RCP scenarios. Future scenarios project a gradual increase in temperature (up to 7 degrees C on average), whilst changes (both increase and decrease) in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration are more severe at the end of the century. The potential change (increase and decrease) in runoff could reach 100% depending on the region and time horizon. Analysis of annual cycles for three selected regions showed that changes in discharge and evapotranspiration due to climate change vary between seasons, whereas the magnitude of change is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. Irrigation needs and the snow depth in the Himalayas are also affected.

National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2193 (URN)000377984300008 ()
Available from: 2016-07-08 Created: 2016-07-08 Last updated: 2018-01-10Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-0462-0912

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