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Lewinschal, A., Ekman, A. M. L., Hansson, H.-C., Sand, M., Berntsen, T. K. & Langner, J. (2019). Local and remote temperature response of regional SO2 emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 19(4), 2385-2403
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Local and remote temperature response of regional SO2 emissions
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2019 (Engelska)Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 19, nr 4, s. 2385-2403Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
Miljö
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5300 (URN)10.5194/acp-19-2385-2019 (DOI)000459421500004 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2019-07-31 Skapad: 2019-07-31 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-07-31Bibliografiskt granskad
Langner, J., Alpfjord Wylde, H. & Andersson, C. (2019). Mapping of phytotoxic ozone dose for birch, spruce, wheat and potato using the MATCH-Sweden system.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Mapping of phytotoxic ozone dose for birch, spruce, wheat and potato using the MATCH-Sweden system
2019 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [sv]

Vi har lagt till beräkningar av PODY för björk, gran vete och potatis i MATCHSverigesystemet. Rapporten går igenom de förändringar och uppdateringar som harinförts i beräkningarna sedan den ursprungliga implementeringen 2016.Resultat för receptorerna generic crops (POD3gen-CR), generic deciduous trees (POD1gen-DT), birch (POD1spec-birch), spruce (POD1spec-spruce), wheat (POD6spec-whet), potato (POD6specpotato),presenteras för åren 2013-2017.En jämförelse med resultat från EMEP-modellen för generic crops och för genericdeciduous trees ger en bättre överensstämmelse än tidigare. Givet att ett fel i beräkningenav solstrålningen har identifierats i EMEP-modellen så framstår resultaten från MATCHSverigeoch EMEP nu som mer konsistenta.Variationen från år till år i PODY för björk och gran är av samma storleksordning somden som beräknas för generic deciduous trees, men numeriska värden för PODY skiljersig, framför allt för björk beroende på skillnader i de parametrar som ingår i beräkningenoch på användning av längre vegetationsperioder baserade på svenska och skandinaviskadata. Kritiska nivåer motsvarande 4 % reduktion i tillväxten av björk och gran överskridsi stort sett i hela landet för alla år som har studerats.Variationen från år till år i PODY för vete och potatis är större än för generic crops pågrund av att ett högre tröskelvärde används i beräkningen av PODY för de specifikagrödorna. Kritiska nivåer motsvarande skördeförluster på 5 % uppnås i södra delen avSverige för fyra av de fem studerade åren för vete och för två av åren för potatis.Det uppdaterade programpaketet för PODY-beräkningar skulle kunna användas förberäkningar av PODY för olika typer av vegetation för perioden 1990-2013 baserat pååteranalyserade ozonkoncentrationer. Programpaketet kan också utvecklas förberäkningar av PODY för hela Europa baserat på olika typer av utsläpps- ochklimatsscenarier.PODY presenteras tillsammans med övriga ozonmått på SMHI:s miljöövervakningssida(www.smhi.se/klimatdata/miljo/atmosfarskemi) med start från miljöövervakningsåret2013.

Abstract [en]

We have added calculations of PODY for birch, spruce, wheat and potato to theMATCH-Sweden system. Several important updates compared to the previousimplementation for generic crops and generic deciduous trees have been made includingimproved calculations of canopy level ozone concentrations, updated calculations ofquasi-laminar and surface resistance and inclusion of soil moisture dependence forspecific vegetation species. 

A comparison to results from the EMEP model for generic crops and generic deciduoustrees shows a better agreement than previously. Considering also that an error in theEMEP calculations has been identified, affecting primarily the PODY calculations forgeneric deciduous trees, MATCH-Sweden and EMEP model results now appear to bemore consistent.Year to year variability of PODY for birch and spruce are similar to that for genericdeciduous trees while numerical values are different, especially for birch, due to differentparameters in the PODY calculation and longer vegetation periods. Critical levelscorresponding to a 4 % growth reduction are exceeded for both birch and spruce in majorparts of Sweden for all years in the period 2013-2017.Year to year variability of PODY for wheat and potato are larger than for generic cropsdue to the higher threshold for PODY used in the calculations. Critical levelscorresponding to a 5 % reduction in crop yield are reached in four of five years insouthern Sweden for wheat and for two in five years for potato.The updated program package for PODY calculations could be used to calculateconsistent time series of PODY for different types of vegetation for the period 1990-2013based on reanalyzed ozone concentrations. The program package could also be developedto calculate PODY for the whole of Europe for different emission- or climate scenarios.The results presented in this report are also available in digital form at the SMHI homepage for environmental monitoring of air quality(www.smhi.se/klimatdata/miljo/atmosfarskemi).

Förlag
s. 38
Serie
Meteorologi, ISSN 0283-7730 ; 166
Nationell ämneskategori
Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning
Forskningsämne
Meteorologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-5231 (URN)
Tillgänglig från: 2019-07-23 Skapad: 2019-07-23 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-07-23Bibliografiskt granskad
Leung, W., Windmark, F., Brodl, L. & Langner, J. (2018). A basis to estimate marginal cost for air traffic in Sweden.: Modelling of ozone, primary and secondary particles and deposition of sulfur and nitrogen..
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>A basis to estimate marginal cost for air traffic in Sweden.: Modelling of ozone, primary and secondary particles and deposition of sulfur and nitrogen.
2018 (Engelska)Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

In this study we have investigated the effects of emissions from aviation on air quality in both Swedish and European domains. The results will be used as a basis to estimate the marginal cost for air traffic in Sweden. The vertical, geographical and temporal distribution of aviation emissions over Sweden has been estimated using a newly developed methodology. The aviation emissions have been categorized by their emission altitude (LTO, low cruise and high cruise) and flight nationality (international, national and overflight). This aviation emission information was then used as input data to the regional atmospheric chemistry model MATCH to simulate the effects of aviation emissions on ecosystem, health and climate metrics. A total of 17 model simulations over three years have been performed. There is one simulation in which all emitted species from the surface and aviation emissions are included and eight simulations in which all aviation emissions from each combination of emission altitude and flight nationality are included. There are eight simulations in which NOx aviation emissions from each combination of emission altitude and flight nationality are included. Using these simulations, contributions from aviation emissions to deposition, concentrations and a range of different air pollution metrics has been calculated. The results are calculated in both the Europe and Swedish domains for all the simulations. 

The following results are included in this report: . Deposition of oxidised and reduced nitrogen . Deposition of excess sulfur . AOT40 and SOMO35 and their exposures . Concentration and exposure of primary and secondary particles . Concentration of nitrate and sulfate particles . Concentration of surface and above surface ozone 

In summary, contributions from aviation emissions in Sweden to the different concentrations, deposition and metrics for environmental effects are generally small, on the order of a few per mille or less. However the impacts can be traced in the simulations well beyond the Swedish borders. LTO emissions give the largest contribution to deposition of oxidised and reduced nitrogen, deposition of excess sulfur and concentrations of primary and secondary particles. In particular near the major airports like Stockholm-Arlanda and Gothenburg-Landvetter. High cruise emissions give insignificant contributions to deposition and concentrations at surface level. LTO emissions give a negative contribution to surface ozone concentration locally at the main Swedish airports but give an overall increased contribution in the regions around. Aviation emissions at low cruise and high cruise levels have the largest effect on ozone concentrations at higher levels. 

Förlag
s. 64
Serie
Meteorologi, ISSN 0283-7730 ; 162
Nyckelord
Air quality, MATCH, dispersion modelling, marginal cost, emissions, flight, air traffic
Nationell ämneskategori
Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning
Forskningsämne
Meteorologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4960 (URN)
Tillgänglig från: 2018-09-07 Skapad: 2018-09-07 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-09-07Bibliografiskt granskad
Karlsson, P. E., Klingberg, J., Engardt, M., Andersson, C., Langner, J., Karlsson, G. P. & Pleijel, H. (2017). Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, 576, 22-35
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe
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2017 (Engelska)Ingår i: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, ISSN 0048-9697, Vol. 576, s. 22-35Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
Miljö
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3916 (URN)10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.061 (DOI)000390964700003 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2017-02-08 Skapad: 2017-02-08 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-02-08Bibliografiskt granskad
Soares, J., Sofiev, M., Geels, C., Christensen, J. H., Andersson, C., Tsyro, S. & Langner, J. (2016). Impact of climate change on the production and transport of sea salt aerosol on European seas. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 16(20), 13081-13104
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Impact of climate change on the production and transport of sea salt aerosol on European seas
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2016 (Engelska)Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 16, nr 20, s. 13081-13104Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
Miljö
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3729 (URN)10.5194/acp-16-13081-2016 (DOI)000387112200001 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2016-12-06 Skapad: 2016-12-06 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-11-29Bibliografiskt granskad
Sand, M., Berntsen, T. K., von Salzen, K., Flanner, M. G., Langner, J. & Victor, D. G. (2016). Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers. Nature Climate Change, 6(3), 286-+
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers
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2016 (Engelska)Ingår i: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 6, nr 3, s. 286-+Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

There is growing scientific(1,2) and political(3,4) interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the global rate, largely as a result of ice-albedo and temperature feedbacks(5-8). Although deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs; refs 9,10). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation are seen more quickly than for mitigation of CO2 and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality(11). This Letter is one of the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCFs emissions, taking into account black carbon (BC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone (O-3), and their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. This study extends the scope of previous works(2,12) by including more detailed calculations of Arctic radiative forcing and quantifying the Arctic temperature response. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations owing to the large absolute amount of emissions. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. Astringent, but technically feasible mitigation scenario for SLCFs, phased in from 2015 to 2030, could cut warming by 0.2 (+/- 0.17) K in 2050.

Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
Miljö
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2032 (URN)10.1038/NCLIMATE2880 (DOI)000370964000019 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2016-05-03 Skapad: 2016-05-02 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-11-30Bibliografiskt granskad
Mahmood, R., von Salzen, K., Flanner, M., Sand, M., Langner, J., Wang, H. & Huang, L. (2016). Seasonality of global and Arctic black carbon processes in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme models. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 121(12), 7100-7116
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Seasonality of global and Arctic black carbon processes in the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme models
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2016 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, ISSN 2169-897X, E-ISSN 2169-8996, Vol. 121, nr 12, s. 7100-7116Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
Miljö
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3135 (URN)10.1002/2016JD024849 (DOI)000381631800025 ()
Externt samarbete:
Tillgänglig från: 2016-09-14 Skapad: 2016-09-14 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-11-21Bibliografiskt granskad
Arnold, S. R., Emmons, L. K., Monks, S. A., Law, K. S., Ridley, D. A., Turquety, S., . . . Long, Y. (2015). Biomass burning influence on high-latitude tropospheric ozone and reactive nitrogen in summer 2008: a multi-model analysis based on POLMIP simulations. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 15(11), 6047-6068
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Biomass burning influence on high-latitude tropospheric ozone and reactive nitrogen in summer 2008: a multi-model analysis based on POLMIP simulations
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2015 (Engelska)Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 15, nr 11, s. 6047-6068Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

We have evaluated tropospheric ozone enhancement in air dominated by biomass burning emissions at high latitudes (>50 degrees N) in July 2008, using 10 global chemical transport model simulations from the POLMIP multimodel comparison exercise. In model air masses dominated by fire emissions, Delta O-3/Delta CO values ranged between 0.039 and 0.196 ppbv ppbv(-1) (mean: 0.113 ppbv ppbv(-1)) in freshly fire-influenced air, and between 0.140 and 0.261 ppbv ppb(-1) (mean: 0.193 ppbv) in more aged fire-influenced air. These values are in broad agreement with the range of observational estimates from the literature. Model Delta PAN/Delta CO enhancement ratios show distinct groupings according to the meteorological data used to drive the models. ECMWF-forced models produce larger Delta PAN/Delta CO values (4.47 to 7.00 pptv ppbv(-1)) than GEOS5-forced models (1.87 to 3.28 pptv ppbv(-1)), which we show is likely linked to differences in efficiency of vertical transport during poleward export from mid-latitude source regions. Simulations of a large plume of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions exported from towards the Arctic using a Lagrangian chemical transport model show that 4-day net ozone change in the plume is sensitive to differences in plume chemical composition and plume vertical position among the POLMIP models. In particular, Arctic ozone evolution in the plume is highly sensitive to initial concentrations of PAN, as well as oxygenated VOCs (acetone, acetaldehyde), due to their role in producing the peroxyacetyl radical PAN precursor. Vertical displacement is also important due to its effects on the stability of PAN, and subsequent effect on NOx abundance. In plumes where net ozone production is limited, we find that the lifetime of ozone in the plume is sensitive to hydrogen peroxide loading, due to the production of HOx from peroxide photolysis, and the key role of HO2 + O-3 in controlling ozone loss. Overall, our results suggest that emissions from biomass burning lead to large-scale photochemical enhancement in high-latitude tropospheric ozone during summer.

Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
Miljö
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1976 (URN)10.5194/acp-15-6047-2015 (DOI)000356180900004 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2016-04-26 Skapad: 2016-03-03 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-11-30Bibliografiskt granskad
Eckhardt, S., Quennehen, B., Olivie, D. J., Berntsen, T. K., Cherian, R., Christensen, J. H., . . . Stohl, A. (2015). Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 15(16), 9413-9433
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set
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2015 (Engelska)Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 15, nr 16, s. 9413-9433Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008-2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January-March underestimated by 59 and 37% for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44% for July-September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
Miljö
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1955 (URN)10.5194/acp-15-9413-2015 (DOI)000360646500020 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2016-04-27 Skapad: 2016-03-03 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-11-30Bibliografiskt granskad
Astrom, C., Ebi, K. L., Langner, J. & Forsberg, B. (2015). Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12(1), 254-267
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures
2015 (Engelska)Ingår i: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, ISSN 1661-7827, E-ISSN 1660-4601, Vol. 12, nr 1, s. 254-267Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Over the last two decades a number of heatwaves have brought the need for heatwave early warning systems (HEWS) to the attention of many European governments. The HEWS in Europe are operating under the assumption that there is a high correlation between observed and forecasted temperatures. We investigated the sensitivity of different temperature mortality relationships when using forecast temperatures. We modelled mortality in Stockholm using observed temperatures and made predictions using forecast temperatures from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts to assess the sensitivity. We found that the forecast will alter the expected future risk differently for different temperature mortality relationships. The more complex models seemed more sensitive to inaccurate forecasts. Despite the difference between models, there was a high agreement between models when identifying risk-days. We find that considerations of the accuracy in temperature forecasts should be part of the design of a HEWS. Currently operating HEWS do evaluate their predictive performance; this information should also be part of the evaluation of the epidemiological models that are the foundation in the HEWS. The most accurate description of the relationship between high temperature and mortality might not be the most suitable or practical when incorporated into a HEWS.

Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap
Forskningsämne
Miljö
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2017 (URN)10.3390/ijerph120100254 (DOI)000348403300014 ()25546283 (PubMedID)
Tillgänglig från: 2016-04-06 Skapad: 2016-03-03 Senast uppdaterad: 2017-11-30
Organisationer
Identifikatorer
ORCID-id: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-2757-2864

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