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Andréasson, Johan
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Publikasjoner (10 av 12) Visa alla publikasjoner
Wetterhall, F., Graham, P., Andreasson, J., Rosberg, J. & Yang, W. (2011). Using ensemble climate projections to assess probabilistic hydrological change in the Nordic region. Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 11(8), 2295-2306
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Using ensemble climate projections to assess probabilistic hydrological change in the Nordic region
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2011 (engelsk)Inngår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences, ISSN 1561-8633, E-ISSN 1684-9981, Vol. 11, nr 8, s. 2295-2306Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Assessing hydrological effects of global climate change at local scales is important for evaluating future hazards to society. However, applying climate model projections to local impact models can be difficult as outcomes can vary considerably between different climate models, and including results from many models is demanding. This study combines multiple climate model outputs with hydrological impact modelling through the use of response surfaces. Response surfaces represent the sensitivity of the impact model to incremental changes in climate variables and show probabilies for reaching a priori determined thresholds. Response surfaces were calculated using the HBV hydrological model for three basins in Sweden. An ensemble of future climate projections was then superimposed onto each response surface, producing a probability estimate for exceeding the threshold being evaluated. Site specific impacts thresholds were used where applicable. Probabilistic trends for future change in hazards or potential can be shown and evaluated. It is particularly useful for visualising the range of probable outcomes from climate models and can easily be updated with new results as they are made available.

HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Hydrologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-539 (URN)10.5194/nhess-11-2295-2011 (DOI)000294438700017 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-04-15 Laget: 2015-04-15 Sist oppdatert: 2018-01-11bibliografisk kontrollert
Yang, W., Andreasson, J., Graham, P., Olsson, J., Rosberg, J. & Wetterhall, F. (2010). Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies. HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, 41(3-4), 211-229
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Distribution-based scaling to improve usability of regional climate model projections for hydrological climate change impacts studies
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2010 (engelsk)Inngår i: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, ISSN 1998-9563, Vol. 41, nr 3-4, s. 211-229Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

As climate change could have considerable influence on hydrology and corresponding water management, appropriate climate change inputs should be used for assessing future impacts. Although the performance of regional climate models (RCMs) has improved over time, systematic model biases still constrain the direct use of RCM output for hydrological impact studies. To address this, a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach was developed that adjusts precipitation and temperature from RCMs to better reflect observations. Statistical properties, such as daily mean, standard deviation, distribution and frequency of precipitation days, were much improved for control periods compared to direct RCM output. DBS-adjusted precipitation and temperature from two IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESA1B) transient climate projections were used as inputs to the HBV hydrological model for several river basins in Sweden for the period 1961-2100. Hydrological results using DBS were compared to results with the widely-used delta change (DC) approach for impact studies. The general signal of a warmer and wetter climate was obtained using both approaches, but use of DBS identified differences between the two projections that were not seen with DC. The DBS approach is thought to better preserve the future variability produced by the RCM, improving usability for climate change impact studies.

Emneord
climate change, downscaling, hydrological impacts
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Hydrologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-592 (URN)10.2166/nh.2010.004 (DOI)000279499700005 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-04-20 Laget: 2015-04-20 Sist oppdatert: 2018-01-11bibliografisk kontrollert
Graham, P., Andreasson, J. & Carlsson, B. (2007). Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods - a case study on the Lule River basin. Climatic Change, 81, 293-307
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods - a case study on the Lule River basin
2007 (engelsk)Inngår i: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 81, s. 293-307Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates how using different regional climate model (RCM) simulations affects climate change impacts on hydrology in northern Europe using an offline hydrological model. Climate change scenarios from an ensemble of seven RCMs, two global climate models (GCMs), two global emissions scenarios and two RCMs of varying resolution were used. A total of 15 climate change simulations were included in studies on the Lule River basin in Northern Sweden. Two different approaches to transfer climate change from the RCMs to hydrological models were tested. A rudimentary estimate of change in laydropower potential on the Lule River due to climate change was also made. The results indicate an overall increase in river flow, earlier spring peak flows and an increase in hydropower potential. The two approaches for transferring the signal of climate change to the hydrological impacts model gave similar mean results, but considerably different seasonal dynamics, a result that is highly relevant for other types of climate change impacts studies.

HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Hydrologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-756 (URN)10.1007/s10584-006-9215-2 (DOI)000247529400017 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-04-28 Laget: 2015-04-22 Sist oppdatert: 2018-01-11bibliografisk kontrollert
Andréasson, J., Hellström, S.-S., Rosberg, J. & Bergström, S. (2007). Översiktlig kartpresentation av klimatförändringars påverkan på Sveriges vattentillgång.: Summary of climate change maps of the Swedish water resources - Background material for the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability. Underlag till Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen.. SMHI
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Översiktlig kartpresentation av klimatförändringars påverkan på Sveriges vattentillgång.: Summary of climate change maps of the Swedish water resources - Background material for the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability. Underlag till Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen.
2007 (svensk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [sv]

Den här rapporten sammanfattar det hydrologiska kartmaterial över förändring i medelavrinning, höga flöden och vattenkraftspotential som har levererats till den statliga Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen.Beräkningarna som ligger till grund för kartmaterialet har utförts med modellsystemet HBV Sverige. Dagens klimat har baserats på observerad temperatur och nederbörd för perioden 1961-1990. Beräkningar av hydrologiska förhållanden i framtidens klimat har baserats på resultat från regional klimatmodellering vid Rossby Centre på SMHI. Sammantaget har hydrologiska beräkningar genomförts för fem olika framtidsscenarier, fyra beräkningar för perioden 2071-2100 och en beräkning för hela perioden 1961-2100. I detta arbete har två olika metoder för att omsätta klimatmodellresultaten till hydrologiska effekter använts, delta-metoden och scaling-metoden.Medelavrinningen kommer enligt scenarierna att öka för större delen av Sverige, med undantag för de sydöstra delarna av landet. Vad det gäller höga flöden är bilden mer komplex, men i sydvästra Sverige och fjällen blir, enligt scenarierna, höga flöden betydligt vanligare. Vattenkraftspotentialen förväntas enligt scenarierna att öka avsevärt för Sverige som helhet. Alla resultat från HBV Sverige ska i första hand användas för en översiktlig tolkning och identifiering av var fördjupade studier kan vara av särskilt behov. Beräkningarna baserade på den s.k. scaling-metoden är mer preliminära än de övriga beräkningarna eftersom metoden fortfarande är under utveckling.AbstractThis report summarizes the water resource maps of changes in mean annual runoff, large floods and hydropower potential that have been delivered to the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability.The hydrological model simulations that have been used to produce the maps were done using the HBV Sweden modelling system. Simulations for present climate used observed input of precipitation and temperature from 1961-1990. Calculations of future hydrological conditions were based on results from regional climate modelling at the Rossby Centre, SMHI. Five different regional scenarios of future climate have been used, four representing the future period 2071-2100 and one for the whole period 1961-2100. Two different approaches to interface the hydrological model and the climate models have been used, the delta method and the scaling method.The mean annual runoff will, according to the scenarios, increase for most parts of Sweden except for the south-east parts of the country. The picture becomes more complex when it comes to changes in large floods, but they are expected to increase substantially in the south-west parts and in the Swedish mountains according to the scenarios. The total Swedish hydropower potential is expected to increase substantially according to the scenarios.All results from HBV Sweden should only be used for a general interpretation of where more in depth analyses might be of interest. The simulations based on the so-called scaling method are more preliminarythan the other simulations, since the method is still under development.

Abstract [en]

This report summarizes the water resource maps of changes in mean annual runoff, large floods and hydropower potential that have been delivered to the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability. The hydrological model simulations that have been used to produce the maps were done using the HBV Sweden modelling system. Simulations for present climate used observed input of precipitation and temperature from 1961-1990. Calculations of future hydrological conditions were based on results from regional climate modelling at the Rossby Centre, SMHI. Five different regional scenarios of future climate have been used, four representing the future period 2071-2100 and one for the whole period 1961-2100. Two different approaches to interface the hydrological model and the climate models have been used, the delta method and the scaling method. The mean annual runoff will, according to the scenarios, increase for most parts of Sweden except for the south-east parts of the country. The picture becomes more complex when it comes to changes in large floods, but they are expected to increase substantially in the south-west parts and in the Swedish mountains according to the scenarios. The total Swedish hydropower potential is expected to increase substantially according to the scenarios. All results from HBV Sweden should only be used for a general interpretation of where more in depth analyses might be of interest. The simulations based on the so-called scaling method are more preliminary than the other simulations, since the method is still under development.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
SMHI, 2007. s. 15
Serie
Hydrologi, ISSN 0283-7722 ; 106
Emneord
Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen, HBV Sverige, klimatförändringar, vattentillgång, höga flöden, vattenkraftspotential, kartpresentation
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2255 (URN)Hydrologi, Rapporter, Serie Hydrologi (Lokal ID)Hydrologi, Rapporter, Serie Hydrologi (Arkivnummer)Hydrologi, Rapporter, Serie Hydrologi (OAI)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2007-10-28 Laget: 2016-07-08 Sist oppdatert: 2016-07-08bibliografisk kontrollert
Meier, M., Andréasson, J., Broman, B., Graham, P., Kjellström, E. & Persson, G. (2006). Climate change scenario simulations of wind, sea level, and river discharge in the Baltic Sea and Lake Mälaren region – a dynamical downscaling approach from global to local scales. SMHI
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Climate change scenario simulations of wind, sea level, and river discharge in the Baltic Sea and Lake Mälaren region – a dynamical downscaling approach from global to local scales
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2006 (engelsk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

A regional climate model (RCM) and oceanographic, hydrological and digital elevation models were applied to study the impact of climate change on surface wind, sea level, river discharge, and flood prone areas in the Baltic Sea region. The RCM was driven by two global models and two emission scenarios. According to the four investigated regional scenario simulations, wind speed in winter is projected to increase between 3 and 19% as an area average over the Baltic Sea. Although extremes of the wind speed will increase about as much as the mean wind speed, sea level extremes will increase more than the mean sea level, especially along the eastern Baltic coasts. In these areas projected storm events and global average sea level rise may cause an increased risk for flooding. However, the Swedish east coast will be less affected because mainly the west wind component in winter would increase and because land uplift would compensate for increased sea levels, at least in the northern parts of the Baltic. One of the aims of the downscaling approach was to investigate the future risk of flooding in the Lake Mälaren region including Stockholm city. In Stockholm the 100-year surge is projected to change between -51 and 53 cm relative to present mean sea level suggesting that in the city the risk of flooding from the Baltic Sea is relatively small because the critical height of the jetty walls will not be exceeded. Lake Mälaren lies just to the west of Stockholm and flows directly into the Baltic Sea to the east. This study addresses also the question of how the water level in Lake Mälaren may be affected by climate change by incorporating the following three contributing components into an analysis: 1) projected changes to hydrological inflows to Lake Mälaren, 2) changes to downstream water levels in the Baltic Sea, and 3) changes in outflow regulation from the lake. The first component is analyzed using hydrological modeling. The second and third components employ the use of a lake discharge model. An important conclusion is that projected changes to hydrological inflows show a stronger impact on lake levels than projected changes in water level for the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, an identified need for increased outflow capacity from the lake for the present climate does not diminish with projections of future climate change. The tools developed in this work provide valuable inputs to planning for both present and future operations of water level in Lake Mälaren. Based on the oceanographic and hydrological scenario simulations, flood prone areas were analysed in detail for two municipalities, namely Ekerö and Stockholm. The GIS analysis of both municipalities indicates a series of affected areas. However, in case of the 100-year flood (0.65 m above the mean lake level) in present climate or even in case of the maximum probable flood (1.48 m above the mean lake level) the potential risks will be relatively low.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
SMHI, 2006. s. 52
Serie
RMK, Rapport Meteorologi och Klimatologi, ISSN 0347-2116 ; 109
Emneord
Baltic Sea, Lake Mälaren, scenario simulations, regional climate model, dynamical downscaling, GIS mapping and analysis, flood prone areas, planning
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2308 (URN)Meteorologi, Rapporter, Serie RMK (Lokal ID)Meteorologi, Rapporter, Serie RMK (Arkivnummer)Meteorologi, Rapporter, Serie RMK (OAI)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2006-02-05 Laget: 2016-07-08 Sist oppdatert: 2016-07-08bibliografisk kontrollert
Carlsson, B., Bergström, S., Andréasson, J. & Hellström, S.-S. (2006). Framtidens översvämningsrisker. SMHI
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Framtidens översvämningsrisker
2006 (svensk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [sv]

På uppdrag av Länsförsäkringsbolagens Forskningsfond har en studie av framtidens översvämningsrisker i Sverige genomförts. Arbetet har koncentrerats till Dalälven, och de stora sjöarna Vänern, Mälaren och Hjälmaren, men en del landsomfattande analyser har också genomförts. Metodiken baserades på två globala klimatmodeller, två antaganden om framtida utsläpp av växthusgaser och en regional klimatmodell för dynamisk nedskalning till svenska förhållanden. De regionala klimatscenarierna har vidarebearbetats med hjälp av den hydrologiska HBV-modellen och de beräknade vattenflödena och vattenstånden behandlades statistiskt med frekvensanalys. Resultaten visar att den framtida riskexponeringen ändras olika i olika delar av landet. Situationen tycks förvärras speciellt i Vänerområdet och längs Göta älv. Det blir också högre risker för översvämningar i de västliga delarna av fjällkedjan. Riskerna för skyfall, som kan skapa allvarliga lokala översvämningar, ökar sannolikt, även om det är svårt att urskilja ett gemensamt mönster i klimatscenarierna. Studien har också behandlat osäkerheterna i bedömningen av översvämningsriskerna. Det är tydligt att osäkerheten i de globala klimatscenarierna svara för en stor del av osäkerheterna i slutresultaten, men det finns också osäkerheter orsakade av valet av strategi för att överföra klimatförändringssignalen från klimatmodeller till den hydrologiska modellen.

Abstract [en]

A study of the impacts of global warming on future risks for floods and inundations in Sweden has been carried out on contract from Länsförsäkringsbolagens Forskningsfond. The work focussed on River Dalälven and the big lakes Vänern, Mälaren and Hjälmaren but some nationwide analyses were carried out as well. The methodology was based on two global climate models, two assumptions about the future emissions of greenhouse gases and a regional climate model for dynamical downscaling to Swedish conditions. The regional climate scenarios are further processed by the HBV hydrological model and the resulting river runoff or water levels are treated statistically by frequency analysis. The results show that future risk exposure is changing in a different way depending on location in the country. The situation seems to be aggravated in particular in the Vänern area in southwest Sweden and along its outlet, River Göta älv. There will also be increased risks in the western parts of the Scandinavian mountains. The risks for heavy rainfalls, which may cause severe local flooding are likely to increase even though it is difficult to discern a consistent regional pattern between the models, in this respect. The study has also addressed the uncertainty in the assessments of flood risks. It is obvious that uncertainties in the global climate scenarios are responsible for a lot of the uncertainty in the end results, but there are also uncertainties inflicted by the strategy used when transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the hydrological model.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
SMHI, 2006. s. 69
Serie
RH, Rapport Hydrologi, ISSN 0283-1104 ; 19
Emneord
Hydrology, climate, scenarios, water resources, floods, peaks, frequency.
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2637 (URN)Hydrologi, Rapporter, Serie RH (Lokal ID)Hydrologi, Rapporter, Serie RH (Arkivnummer)Hydrologi, Rapporter, Serie RH (OAI)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2006-09-03 Laget: 2016-07-08 Sist oppdatert: 2016-07-08bibliografisk kontrollert
Arheimer, B., Andreasson, J., Fogelberg, S., Johnsson, H., Pers, C. & Persson, K. (2005). Climate change impact on water quality: Model results from southern Sweden. Ambio, 34(7), 559-566
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Climate change impact on water quality: Model results from southern Sweden
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2005 (engelsk)Inngår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 34, nr 7, s. 559-566Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Starting from six regional climate change scenarios, nitrogen leaching from arable-soil, water discharge, and nitrogen retention was modeled in the Ronnea catchment. Additionally, biological response was modeled in the eutrophic Lake Ringsjon. The results are compared with similar studies on other catchments. All scenarios gave similar impact on water quality but varied in quantities. However, one scenario resulted in a different transport pattern due to less-pronounced seasonal variations in the hydrology. On average, the study shows that, in a future climate, we might expect: i) increased concentrations of nitrogen in the arable root zone (+50%) and in the river (+13%); ii) increased annual load of nitrogen from land to sea (+22%) due to more pronounced winter high flow; moreover, remote areas in the catchment may start to contribute to the outlet load; iii) radical changes in lake biochemistry with increased concentrations of total phosphorus (+50%), total nitrogen (+20%), and planktonic algae such as cyanobacteria (+80%).

HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Hydrologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1260 (URN)10.1639/0044-7447(2005)034[0559:CCIOWQ]2.0.CO;2 (DOI)000233522100012 ()16435746 (PubMedID)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-07-28 Laget: 2015-05-26 Sist oppdatert: 2018-01-11bibliografisk kontrollert
Andréasson, J., Bergström, S., Carlsson, B., Graham, P. & Lindström, G. (2004). Hydrological change - Climate change impact simulations for Sweden. Ambio, 33(4-5), 228-234
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Hydrological change - Climate change impact simulations for Sweden
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2004 (engelsk)Inngår i: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 33, nr 4-5, s. 228-234Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.

HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Hydrologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1315 (URN)10.1639/0044-7447(2004)033[0228:HCCCIS]2.0.CO;2 (DOI)000222127800009 ()15264601 (PubMedID)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-05-27 Laget: 2015-05-26 Sist oppdatert: 2018-01-11bibliografisk kontrollert
Persson, G., Graham, P., Andréasson, J. & Meier, M. (2004). Impact of Climate Change Effects on Sea-Level Rise in Combination with an Altered River Flow in the Lake Mälar Region: Conference Proceedings. In: Hans-Jörg Isemer (Ed.), Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings. Paper presented at International BALTEX Secretariat publication series No. 29, GKSS, Geesthacht, Germany,Gudhjem, Bornholm, Denmark 24 - 28 May 2004 (pp. 172-173).
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Impact of Climate Change Effects on Sea-Level Rise in Combination with an Altered River Flow in the Lake Mälar Region: Conference Proceedings
2004 (engelsk)Inngår i: Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, 2004, s. 172-173Konferansepaper, Publicerat paper (Annet vitenskapelig)
Serie
International BALTEX Secretariat publication series ; 29
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Oceanografi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4982 (URN)
Konferanse
International BALTEX Secretariat publication series No. 29, GKSS, Geesthacht, Germany,Gudhjem, Bornholm, Denmark 24 - 28 May 2004
Tilgjengelig fra: 2018-10-12 Laget: 2018-10-12 Sist oppdatert: 2018-10-12bibliografisk kontrollert
Bergström, S., Andréasson, J., Graham, P. & Lindström, G. (2004). Use of Hydrological Data and Climate Scenarios for Climate Change Detection in the Baltic Basin. In: Hans-Jörg Isemer (Ed.), Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings. Paper presented at Fourth Study Conference on BALTEXConference Proceedings GKKS in Isemer, Gudhjem, Bornholm, Denmark, May 24-28, 2004 (pp. 158-159). Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, 4
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Use of Hydrological Data and Climate Scenarios for Climate Change Detection in the Baltic Basin
2004 (engelsk)Inngår i: Study Conference on BALTEX: Conference Proceedings / [ed] Hans-Jörg Isemer, Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH , 2004, Vol. 4, s. 158-159Konferansepaper, Publicerat paper (Annet vitenskapelig)
sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Risø National Laboratory Technical University of Denmark GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, 2004
Serie
International BALTEX Secretariat publication series ; 29
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
Klimat
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4944 (URN)
Konferanse
Fourth Study Conference on BALTEXConference Proceedings GKKS in Isemer, Gudhjem, Bornholm, Denmark, May 24-28, 2004
Tilgjengelig fra: 2018-08-27 Laget: 2018-08-27 Sist oppdatert: 2018-08-27bibliografisk kontrollert
Organisasjoner
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