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Publikasjoner (10 av 43) Visa alla publikasjoner
Sofiev, M., Ritenberga, O., Albertini, R., Arteta, J., Belmonte, J., Bernstein, C. G., . . . Vokou, D. (2017). Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 17(20), 12341-12360
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Multi-model ensemble simulations of olive pollen distribution in Europe in 2014: current status and outlook
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2017 (engelsk)Inngår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 17, nr 20, s. 12341-12360Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4306 (URN)10.5194/acp-17-12341-2017 (DOI)000413112300002 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2017-11-13 Laget: 2017-11-13 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-13bibliografisk kontrollert
Andersson, C., Alpfjord, H., Robertson, L., Karlsson, P. E. & Engardt, M. (2017). Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990-2013. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 17(22)
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990-2013
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2017 (engelsk)Inngår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 17, nr 22Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4452 (URN)10.5194/acp-17-13869-2017 (DOI)000416001700001 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2017-12-12 Laget: 2017-12-12 Sist oppdatert: 2017-12-12bibliografisk kontrollert
Thomas, M., Brannstrom, N., Persson, C., Grahn, H., von Schoenberg, P. & Robertson, L. (2017). Surface air quality implications of volcanic injection heights. Atmospheric Environment, 166, 510-518
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Surface air quality implications of volcanic injection heights
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2017 (engelsk)Inngår i: Atmospheric Environment, ISSN 1352-2310, E-ISSN 1873-2844, Vol. 166, s. 510-518Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-4316 (URN)10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.07.045 (DOI)000411298800046 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2017-11-13 Laget: 2017-11-13 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-13bibliografisk kontrollert
Silver, J. D., Christensen, J. H., Kahnert, M., Robertson, L., Rayner, P. J. & Brandt, J. (2016). Multi-species chemical data assimilation with the Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: system description and verification. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, 73(3), 261-302
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Multi-species chemical data assimilation with the Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: system description and verification
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2016 (engelsk)Inngår i: Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, ISSN 0167-7764, E-ISSN 1573-0662, Vol. 73, nr 3, s. 261-302Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-3036 (URN)10.1007/s10874-015-9326-0 (DOI)000380265800003 ()
Eksternt samarbeid:
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-09-01 Laget: 2016-09-01 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-21bibliografisk kontrollert
Marecal, V., Peuch, V.-H. -., Andersson, C., Andersson, S., Arteta, J., Beekmann, M., . . . Ung, A. (2015). A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(9), 2777-2813
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production
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2015 (engelsk)Inngår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 8, nr 9, s. 2777-2813Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in the MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACCII (summer 2014) and analyses the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O-3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) and PAN + PAN precursors) over eight vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performance of the system is assessed daily, weekly and every 3 months (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the ensemble median to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10. The statistical indicators for ozone in summer 2014 show that the ensemble median gives on average the best performances compared to the seven models. There is very little degradation of the scores with the forecast day but there is a marked diurnal cycle, similarly to the individual models, that can be related partly to the prescribed diurnal variations of anthropogenic emissions in the models. During summer 2014, the diurnal ozone maximum is underestimated by the ensemble median by about 4 mu g m(-3) on average. Locally, during the studied ozone episodes, the maxima from the ensemble median are often lower than observations by 30-50 mu g m(-3). Overall, ozone scores are generally good with average values for the normalised indicators of 0.14 for the modified normalised mean bias and of 0.30 for the fractional gross error. Tests have also shown that the ensemble median is robust to reduction of ensemble size by one, that is, if predictions are unavailable from one model. Scores are also discussed for PM10 for winter 2013-1014. There is an underestimation of most models leading the ensemble median to a mean bias of 4.5 mu g m(-3). The ensemble median fractional gross error is larger for PM10 (similar to 0.52) than for ozone and the correlation is lower (similar to 0.35 for PM10 and similar to 0.54 for ozone). This is related to a larger spread of the seven model scores for PM10 than for ozone linked to different levels of complexity of aerosol representation in the individual models. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.

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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1943 (URN)10.5194/gmd-8-2777-2015 (DOI)000364325700005 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-04-29 Laget: 2016-03-03 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-30bibliografisk kontrollert
Sofiev, M., Berger, U., Prank, M., Vira, J., Arteta, J., Belmonte, J., . . . Peuch, V.-H. -. (2015). MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 15(14), 8115-8130
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
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2015 (engelsk)Inngår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 15, nr 14, s. 8115-8130Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.

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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-1964 (URN)10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015 (DOI)000358799000023 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-04-27 Laget: 2016-03-03 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-30bibliografisk kontrollert
Andersson, C., Bergström, R., Bennet, C., Robertson, L., Thomas, M., Korhonen, H., . . . Kokkola, H. (2015). MATCH-SALSA - Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model - Part 1: Model description and evaluation. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(2), 171-189
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>MATCH-SALSA - Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model - Part 1: Model description and evaluation
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2015 (engelsk)Inngår i: Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN 1991-959X, E-ISSN 1991-9603, Vol. 8, nr 2, s. 171-189Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

We have implemented the sectional aerosol dynamics model SALSA (Sectional Aerosol module for Large Scale Applications) in the European-scale chemistry-transport model MATCH (Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry). The new model is called MATCH-SALSA. It includes aerosol microphysics, with several formulations for nucleation, wet scavenging and condensation. The model reproduces observed higher particle number concentration (PNC) in central Europe and lower concentrations in remote regions. The modeled PNC size distribution peak occurs at the same or smaller particle size as the observed peak at four measurement sites spread across Europe. Total PNC is underestimated at northern and central European sites and accumulation-mode PNC is underestimated at all investigated sites. The low nucleation rate coefficient used in this study is an important reason for the underestimation. On the other hand, the model performs well for particle mass (including secondary inorganic aerosol components), while elemental and organic carbon concentrations are underestimated at many of the sites. Further development is needed, primarily for treatment of secondary organic aerosol, in terms of biogenic emissions and chemical transformation. Updating the biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme will likely have a large impact on modeled PM2.5 and also affect the model performance for PNC through impacts on nucleation and condensation.

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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2010 (URN)10.5194/gmd-8-171-2015 (DOI)000350557800003 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2016-04-06 Laget: 2016-03-03 Sist oppdatert: 2017-11-30bibliografisk kontrollert
Kovalets, I. V., Robertson, L., Persson, C., Didkivska, S. N., Ievdin, I. A. & Trybushnyi, D. (2014). Calculation of the far range atmospheric transport of radionuclides after the Fukushima accident with the atmospheric dispersion model MATCH of the JRODOS system. International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 54(2-4), 101-109
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Calculation of the far range atmospheric transport of radionuclides after the Fukushima accident with the atmospheric dispersion model MATCH of the JRODOS system
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2014 (engelsk)Inngår i: International Journal of Environment and Pollution, ISSN 0957-4352, E-ISSN 1741-5101, Vol. 54, nr 2-4, s. 101-109Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

The paper presents estimates of the far-range atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), obtained using the long-range atmospheric dispersion model MATCH. Software tools were developed to run MATCH in the EU nuclear emergency response system JRODOS using freely available numerical weather prediction (NWP) data of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) operated by the United States National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Comparisons are made of results with JRODOS/MATCH and a standalone MATCH operated by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) NWP data.

Emneord
long range atmospheric transport, Cs-137, MATCH model, Fukushima, nuclear emergency response, JRODOS system, deposition
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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-142 (URN)10.1504/IJEP.2014.065110 (DOI)000343369400001 ()
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-04-09 Laget: 2015-03-26 Sist oppdatert: 2017-12-04bibliografisk kontrollert
Maderich, V., Bezhenar, R., Heling, R., de With, G., Jung, K. T., Myoung, J. G., . . . Robertson, L. (2014). Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 131, 4-18
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident
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2014 (engelsk)Inngår i: Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, ISSN 0265-931X, E-ISSN 1879-1700, Vol. 131, s. 4-18Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from Cs-137 data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of Cs-137 in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of Cs-137 for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 mu Sv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a factor of 6 in comparison with 2010. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emneord
Compartment modelling, Radionuclide transfer in marine biota, Human ingestion doses, Fukushima Dai-ichi accident
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urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-117 (URN)10.1016/j.jenvrad.2013.09.009 (DOI)000334005200002 ()24120972 (PubMedID)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2015-04-13 Laget: 2015-03-26 Sist oppdatert: 2017-12-04bibliografisk kontrollert
Andersson, C., Bergström, R., Bennet, C., Thomas, M., Robertson, L., Kokkola, H. & Lehtinen, K. (2013). MATCH-SALSA: Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model. SMHI
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>MATCH-SALSA: Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry model coupled to the SALSA aerosol microphysics model
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2013 (engelsk)Rapport (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

This report presents a new aerosol dynamics version of a European scale Eulerian CTM, MATCH. The new model is called MATCH-SALSA, and includes aerosol microphysics and several options for nucleation, wet scavenging and condensation. The report entails model description, evaluation and sensitivity tests.The new model reproduces observed higher particle number concentration (PNC) in central Europe and lower in remote regions. The model peak PNC occurs at the same particle size as the observed peak or at smaller sizes, which indicate missing growth. Total PNC is underestimated at some sites. The model performs well for particle mass, including SIA components. EC and OC are underestimated at many of the sites.The results are sensitive to the fraction of SOx emitted as H2SO4 and the optimum choice is site dependent. The model results are highly sensitive to whether organic nucleation is included or not. The model results are sensitive to amount of organic vapors in the condensation. The model can be used in applications knowing the restrictions of what the model manages well and what needs further improvements, which is detailed in the report.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
SMHI, 2013. s. 102
Serie
RMK, Rapport Meteorologi och Klimatologi, ISSN 0347-2116 ; 115
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-2632 (URN)Meteorologi, Klimat, Rapporter, Serie RMK (Lokal ID)Meteorologi, Klimat, Rapporter, Serie RMK (Arkivnummer)Meteorologi, Klimat, Rapporter, Serie RMK (OAI)
Tilgjengelig fra: 2013-12-04 Laget: 2016-07-08 Sist oppdatert: 2016-07-08bibliografisk kontrollert
Organisasjoner
Identifikatorer
ORCID-id: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-2738-5556
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